Ancelotti's judgment on the line at Old Trafford

Chelsea's beleaguered boss must abandon the Fernando Torres experiment for Sunday's title decider, even if it costs him his job

Ancelotti's team selection may be crucial at Old Trafford as Chelsea seek to retain their title

Against all the odds, Chelsea once again find themselves in with a chance of winning a title they had done their very best to lose.

Arsenal’s defeat of leaders Manchester United on Sunday leaves Carlo Ancelotti’s side three points off the pace with an identical goal difference and with what Sir Alex Ferguson admits is a “massive chance” to frustrate United in their quest for a record 19th league crown.

With a decisive trip to Old Trafford to come this weekend, the Blues go into the final three games of the Premier League season knowing maximum points will almost certainly see them retain their title.

And this is all despite a wretched run which saw them record only five wins in 16 games between early November and mid-February,  and despite the fact that they have suffered seven defeats overall this term.

To describe this as an extremely difficult campaign for Carlo Ancelotti would be a considerable understatement.

Attempting to compete for domestic and European honours with a criminally thin squad of ageing stars against a backdrop of boardroom interference has proved a fool’s errand, and a belated £70million January transfer spree proved insufficient to deliver the Champions League trophy Roman Abramovich so greatly craves.

After all he has endured, it is likely Ancelotti will leave Stamford Bridge at the end of the season regardless of the result at Old Trafford on Sunday, either as yet another victim of the Russian billionaire owner’s well-worn axe or of his own volition.

And this is exactly why, having been presented with one last opportunity to lead Chelsea to an unlikely defence of their Premier League crown, the Italian must be bloody-minded, and disregard any prior deference to Abramovich’s vanity when picking the eleven players who will face United.

The presence of a misfiring Torres has created a huge problem for Ancelotti

I am talking, of course, about Fernando Torres, the £50million gift that just isn’t giving. It is the Spaniard who represents the biggest threat to the Blues’ chances of seizing the initiative in the title race this weekend.

Torres’ struggles over the last 18 months have been well documented, and there are countless theories which have sought to explain his drastic decline in form.

Protestations of unhappiness on Merseyside secured a big money move to west London, but if anything the 27-year-old has looked even more lost in his new surroundings, as he tries to adapt to a new system, new teammates and a new way of playing.

Ancelotti has tried gamely to find a style which brings the best out of his new frontman, but all have involved shoe-horning too many square pegs into round holes. Torres’ epic Chelsea drought may be over, but one goal from fifteen appearances remains a damning indictment of both player and manager.

Ancelotti recently described Torres in a press conference as ‘the present and future of Chelsea.’ He’s half right.
 

Having spent so much money on bringing in a world-class striker six years the junior of Didier Drogba, it is inevitable the powers that be at Stamford Bridge want to build the next great Blues side around the Spaniard.
 

Didier Drogba's improving form has been an key component in Chelsea's revival

But it is the Drogba, not Torres, who must lead the line at Old Trafford on Sunday. For starters, big name competition appears to bring the best out in him.

The big Ivorian responded to the arrival of Andriy Shevchenko in 2006 by scoring a then-career best 33 goals for Chelsea the following season, and Torres’ presence appears to have had a similar effect.

Drogba has still to hit top goalscoring form since contracting malaria in October last year, but he is the main reason why Chelsea have taken 25 points from a possible 27 in their last nine games despite never looking their imperious best.

With Drogba leading the line, Chelsea are a formidable attacking force. With Torres, they are a team carrying a passenger. If Ancelotti thinks any different, he would be well-advised to re-watch the tapes of his side’s Champions League exit at Old Trafford last month.

Chelsea looked toothless and sluggish for well over an hour of that game until their manager lost patience with Torres and handed Drogba the unenviable task of rescuing the tie inside the last 20 minutes. The 33-year-old did not succeed, but accomplished more in his brief cameo than Torres has since January.

United’s excellent central defensive partnership of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic will feel no fear if they see the Spaniard’s name on the team sheet again on Sunday.

Nor is pairing the two together a viable option. On the occasions when it has been tried, the whole team has suffered.

Drogba and Torres have struggled to play together since the latter's January arrival

Playing two central strikers necessitates a narrow four-man diamond midfield and an over-reliance on the full-backs for width, and Chelsea have been found out very quickly by both United and Liverpool when playing this way recently.

Even on a purely footballing level, when they have been on the pitch together, Torres and Drogba have appeared at best incapable of playing together and at worst unwilling to try.

In such a situation, Ancelotti must go with the more effective choice. And, of course, Torres would still be a potentially dangerous one man 'plan B' if Chelsea are forced to go for broke late on at Old Trafford.

Chelsea will not necessarily win if Drogba starts on Sunday, but they will have a fighting chance. If Torres starts, all available evidence suggests they will lose.

After all he has seen over the past few weeks and months, it is almost inconceivable that privately Ancelotti has not reached this same conclusion, despite what he says in public.

Consequently, if he selects Torres to lead the line against United, it must be interpreted as an attempt to indulge the Chelsea owner to the detriment of his side's chances.

But any such attempt at indulgence would prove fruitless for the Italian. 

Roman Abramovich has shown himself to be a man who will not countenance failure, even if he has contributed to it. He has no record of showing mercy to his managers or even acknowledging his part in their downfall, and there is no reason to assume this will change.

It will be Carlo Ancelotti’s judgment, and probably his job, on the line at Old Trafford on Sunday. Therefore it is his own judgment by which he must abide.

Clubs roll the dice on deadline day

On Monday - against the backdrop of a national austerity drive of unprecedented scale - came the most expensive and enthralling transfer deadline day ever, as the owners of two of the Premier League's troubled giants laid their cards (and their cash) on the table.

Chelsea's reclusive and volatile owner Roman Abramovich, seemingly unable to tolerate further evidence that his own policy of belt-tightening is not conducive to keeping the Blues at the top of the domestic and European game, splashed out over £75m in less than 24 hours on the acquisitions of Fernando Torres and David Luiz.

At Torres' former club Liverpool, new owners New England Sports Ventures oversaw spending of just under £60m on Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll in the same time period, as they look to placate an Anfield faithful reeling from the departure of one of their most revered stars and desperately seeking reassurance on the club's ambitions going forward.

The aggressive transfer strategies of Abramovich and NESV have the potential to transform their respective clubs' short-term and long-term fortunes. Having said that, there is more than a hint of a gamble in their common decision to pay massive fees for players who, at one level or another, have a lot left to prove.

For Abramovich and Chelsea, the signing of Torres in particular is an awesome statement of intent. 

It is also an emphatic way to pour scorn on the suggestions of some observers that the Russian billionaire had fallen out of love with the West London club, or that his heavy involvement in the planning for his homeland's first ever World Cup in 2018 would prove a potentially damaging distraction.

But the significance of Torres' capture is greater than this. Of course, the £50m price tag will inevitably invite comparisons to Abramovich's last major outlay - the misguided move for Andriy Shevchenko in the summer of 2006.

But there the similarities end.

In Torres, Chelsea have acquired a player who as recently as two years ago was regarded as the best out-and-out striker in world football.

His goals were integral as Liverpool challenged Manchester United for the Premier League title in 2008, and he also netted the winner in the final of Euro 2008 as Spain won their first international honour for over 40 years.

Admittedly, Shevchenko boasted a similarly illustrious CV when he moved to England. But the Ukrainian was 30 years old, having just suffered a serious knee injury which, in hindsight, meant he was already finished as a top-level performer.

A combination of injuries, underachievement and disillusionment with life in Liverpool has undoubtedly curtailed Torres' progress in the last 18 months.

But at only 26, it is a reasonable bet that the Spaniard's best years remain in front of him. If this turns out to be true, then £50m could actually end up being good value.

The biggest risk in Abramovich's rationale lies in the fact that he has smashed the British transfer record based on the player that Fernando Torres can be, and not the player he is right now.

But Chelsea's move for Torres does not represent the biggest gamble of deadline day, even if it was the most expensive one. In fact, it wasn't even Abramovich's biggest gamble.

The signing of Fernando Torres may be considered by many a 'luxury' for Chelsea, but the addition of David Luiz for £21m from Benfica was borne out of pure necessity. 

Defensive injuries played an instrumental role in the Blues' decline over the last two months, and with Alex still on the sidelines following knee surgery, Branislav Ivanovic perversely looking more comfortable at right-back, and Jeffrey Bruma not yet ready to make the step up, fresh blood was urgently needed.

But is the 24-year-old Brazilian the right man for the job? At £21m, he would be an expensive mistake. 

It must be stated that consistently solid displays for Benfica have earned Luiz a reputation as one of the best young defenders on the continent.

But the risk remains that the urgency of Chelsea's need for defensive cover clouded their judgment and resulted in them paying over the odds for a player who is, as yet, unproven in a major European league, and who will at the very least take time to adjust to a very different footballing environment.

Time will inevitably be the judge of whether or not Abramovich's deadline day gambles pay off. What is certain, however, is that those in West London will not be the only ones hoping that fortune favours the brave.

     

Some 176 miles north of the capital, John W. Henry and his associates at New England Sports Ventures took perhaps their boldest move yet as owners of Liverpool FC, bankrolling a last-minute transfer spree of their own as they look to re-establish the country's most successful football club among the footballing elite.

Having spent close to £60m on bringing in Luis Suarez from Ajax and Andy Carroll from Newcastle United, NESV's expenditure may lack some of the scale of that undertaken by Chelsea's wealthy patron, but an examination of the players acquired reveals the Americans' investment lacks nothing in terms of sheer audacity.

Suarez is a signing which carries promise and excitement, even if the former Ajax star was a little overpriced at £23m. He boasts a phenomenal scoring record of 111 goals in 159 appearances for the Dutch giants, as well as an impressive World Cup which deserves to be remembered for more than that handball. 

Moreover, he is young, tactically versatile and hungry - in short, exactly the sort of player Liverpool should be looking to sign as they aim to recapture past glories.

Of course, the risk is that Liverpool may become just another Premier League club who live to regret signing a player on the basis of an impressive goal tally in the Eredivisie. 

After all, for every Ruud van Nistelrooy there has been a Mateja Kezman, and only the brave or the foolish would attempt the extol the virtues of Afonso Alves to any self-respecting Middlesbrough fan.

However, Suarez's current ability and potential for further improvement minimises the risk which comes with his slightly-inflated price tag. He may take time to adjust, but when he does, he is should become a considerable asset.

At any rate, the chance which NESV have taken in bringing Suarez into the Premier League pales almost into insignificance when compared with the decision to pay £35m for Andy Carroll.

When Newcastle United placed a price tag of £30m on Carroll's head at the beginning of January, it was rightly interpreted as a club plucking a completely unrealistic fee from thin air to ward off any potential suitors.

Never in a million years did Mike Ashley, Derek Llambias or Alan Pardew actually think that anyone would be willing to meet this outrageous valuation.

Not only did Liverpool meet it, they exceeded it. In doing so, they have taken a gamble of monumental proportions. 

At the time of writing, Andy Carroll is not worth £35m. He is barely worth half of that.

Like Chelsea and Fernando Torres, the fee Liverpool have paid is based on the player they think Andy Carroll can become, not the player he is today. But unlike Chelsea and Torres, Liverpool have no solid evidence that Andy Carroll is capable of shining consistently at the very highest level.

The 21-year-old has shown fantastic potential in his first few months in the Premier League, as well as standing out in a wretched England side in last November's friendly against France. But he remains far from the finished article on or off the pitch.

Carroll's immaturity and personal problems have already resulted in several court appearances, and the young man's inner demons provide yet another obstacle to this rough diamond being fashioned into the jewel of the Anfield crown.

It is a project which Kenny Dalglish will undoubtedly set himself to with relish, but Carroll's price tag has raised the stakes to such an extent that it is now one which Liverpool cannot afford to fail. 

NESV's logic will undoubtedly be that a swift and decisive response was needed to quell the unease created, both internally and externally, by Fernando Torres' acrimonious departure. 

To this end, the signings of Suarez and Carroll have already succeeded, encouraging an atmosphere of cautious optimism around the red half of Merseyside.

Similarly, Roman Abramovich will hope that his own investment will breathe life into a faltering season, and give the Chelsea fans hope that a campaign which is unlikely to result in Premier League glory may yet yield other, and perhaps greater, rewards.

It is with almost inevitable timing that Chelsea host Liverpool this Sunday. Rest assured that both Roman Abramovich and John W. Henry will be watching with breath as baited as the rest of us, looking frantically for the first signs that their gambles are starting to bear fruit.

Can Joe Cole transform Liverpool?

Until today, it was fair to say that, free-spending Manchester City aside, this summer's transfer window had failed to capture the imagination of many Premier League fans. With most top clubs and players unwilling to consider transfer negotiations until after the World Cup, significant developments in the market had been at a premium. But now Liverpool have come up on the rails to beat Tottenham, Arsenal and possibly a few others to the signing of Joe Cole, prompting former Reds legends such as Ian Rush and Alan Kennedy to publicly congratulate Roy Hodgson on pulling off such a coup, and even leaving rival fans grudgingly impressed.

There's no doubt that, as a free agent, Cole was an inspired signing waiting to happen for any ambitious Premier League club, and Liverpool rightly deserve credit for securing his signature. The natural flair which he exhibited as a youngster at West Ham always marked him out as a special talent, and under Jose Mourinho's guidance at Chelsea this ability was complemented by an indefatigable work ethic and willingness to track back - rare qualities in a creative midfielder, and one which would make him a significant asset to any side.

But the impact of Cole's signing is not limited to the talent he possesses on the pitch. It has the potential to be a statement of intent - to show that Liverpool are not yet out of the business of signing top players, despite their lack of Champions League football and financial troubles. It can also serve to convince the top players already at the club that their future successes lie at Anfield. In one area, this potential has already been realised, with talismanic captain Steven Gerrard effectively committing his future to the club in the wake of the signing. Fernando Torres included, Gerrard is the most important player at Liverpool - not only for his invaluable contribution on the field, but also because he is an integral part of the club's identity. As a consequence, his departure would have dealt a catastrophic blow to Roy Hodgson's attempts to rebuild Liverpool as a major force.

However, whilst the impressive capture of Joe Cole must be given its due credit, it must also be placed into context. Liverpool finished 23 points off champions Chelsea last year, and comfortably missed out on the fourth Champions League spot. They were exposed as a woefully limited side, far too reliant on the drive of Gerrard and goals of Torres, and therefore unable to cope with the loss of form and fitness of these two key individuals. The sale of Xabi Alonso also proved a mistake, as it took his replacement Alberto Aquilani the whole first half of the season to overcome his own injury problems, and much longer to adapt to the rigorous style of the Premier League. This term, he will surely be better, but Liverpool's task to regain their position in the 'big four' has become much harder. Manchester City continue to operate in accordance with the mantra that 'money is no object' in their pursuit of their lofty aims, and Tottenham's budget and playing squad will be strengthened by the financial rewards of achieving Champions League football last time out. With Aston Villa and Everton also likely to be competitive once more, Roy Hodgson will know that overseeing an Anfield revival will be far from easy.

It will take more than Joe Cole to remedy the problems which Liverpool faced last season, and to adequately prepare them for the challenges posed by the current campaign. Whilst he will certainly lessen the creative burden previously thrust entirely upon Gerrard's shoulders, another quality striker is desperately needed, either to deputise for Fernando Torres in his absence, or to partner him on the field. The Spaniard is undoubtedly a world-class forward, but based upon the evidence of the last 18 months, it would be optimistic to the point of foolish to rely on him to have an injury free season. Moreover, it remains uncertain whether Torres will even be a Liverpool player for much longer, with several rumours linking him to both Chelsea and Barcelona. He may require more assurances than Gerrard that Liverpool will soon once again be challenging for major honours, and Hodgson will surely consider this one of his biggest priorities.

A new midfield enforcer may also be required, with Javier Mascherano's Anfield future growing more doubtful with every message which Roy Hodgson is forced to leave on his voicemail. Pepe Reina remains one of the best keepers in the country, an assertion borne out by the fact that Liverpool boasted the third best defensive record in the league last season, despite their poor overall performance. Nevertheless, a recognised left-back is urgently needed after the sale of the disappointing Emiliano Insua and the inconsistent Fabio Aurelio, and the addition of a pacey young centre-back to the squad would complement the more physical qualities of Jamie Carragher and Daniel Agger.

There is, of course, well over a month to go in the summer transfer window, making it perfectly possible that Joe Cole could be the first of several big names to arrive at Anfield. Certain indications, however, suggest that this may not be the case. The huge debt that Reds owners Tom Hicks and George Gillett have saddled the club with has been well documented, and worryingly for Liverpool fans, these financial restraints appear to have manifested themselves in a 'less is more' approach to transfer dealings, with the emphasis thus far being placed on securing free agents and promising youngsters for minimal fees. Whilst it must be said that Liverpool have fared particularly well in their pursuit of the former, with talented internationals Maxi Rodriguez and Milan Jovanovic joining alongside Cole for nothing, the fact is that quality free agents are extremely few and far between, and therefore it seems inevitable that significant outlay will be required if Hodgson wishes to make further top additions to his squad.

The capture of Joe Cole is undoubtedly a significant statement of intent from the Liverpool hierarchy that they intend to regain what they consider to be their rightful place in the 'big four' of English football. Only time will tell whether they have the pockets to match their ambition.