Ancelotti's judgment on the line at Old Trafford

Chelsea's beleaguered boss must abandon the Fernando Torres experiment for Sunday's title decider, even if it costs him his job

Ancelotti's team selection may be crucial at Old Trafford as Chelsea seek to retain their title

Against all the odds, Chelsea once again find themselves in with a chance of winning a title they had done their very best to lose.

Arsenal’s defeat of leaders Manchester United on Sunday leaves Carlo Ancelotti’s side three points off the pace with an identical goal difference and with what Sir Alex Ferguson admits is a “massive chance” to frustrate United in their quest for a record 19th league crown.

With a decisive trip to Old Trafford to come this weekend, the Blues go into the final three games of the Premier League season knowing maximum points will almost certainly see them retain their title.

And this is all despite a wretched run which saw them record only five wins in 16 games between early November and mid-February,  and despite the fact that they have suffered seven defeats overall this term.

To describe this as an extremely difficult campaign for Carlo Ancelotti would be a considerable understatement.

Attempting to compete for domestic and European honours with a criminally thin squad of ageing stars against a backdrop of boardroom interference has proved a fool’s errand, and a belated £70million January transfer spree proved insufficient to deliver the Champions League trophy Roman Abramovich so greatly craves.

After all he has endured, it is likely Ancelotti will leave Stamford Bridge at the end of the season regardless of the result at Old Trafford on Sunday, either as yet another victim of the Russian billionaire owner’s well-worn axe or of his own volition.

And this is exactly why, having been presented with one last opportunity to lead Chelsea to an unlikely defence of their Premier League crown, the Italian must be bloody-minded, and disregard any prior deference to Abramovich’s vanity when picking the eleven players who will face United.

The presence of a misfiring Torres has created a huge problem for Ancelotti

I am talking, of course, about Fernando Torres, the £50million gift that just isn’t giving. It is the Spaniard who represents the biggest threat to the Blues’ chances of seizing the initiative in the title race this weekend.

Torres’ struggles over the last 18 months have been well documented, and there are countless theories which have sought to explain his drastic decline in form.

Protestations of unhappiness on Merseyside secured a big money move to west London, but if anything the 27-year-old has looked even more lost in his new surroundings, as he tries to adapt to a new system, new teammates and a new way of playing.

Ancelotti has tried gamely to find a style which brings the best out of his new frontman, but all have involved shoe-horning too many square pegs into round holes. Torres’ epic Chelsea drought may be over, but one goal from fifteen appearances remains a damning indictment of both player and manager.

Ancelotti recently described Torres in a press conference as ‘the present and future of Chelsea.’ He’s half right.
 

Having spent so much money on bringing in a world-class striker six years the junior of Didier Drogba, it is inevitable the powers that be at Stamford Bridge want to build the next great Blues side around the Spaniard.
 

Didier Drogba's improving form has been an key component in Chelsea's revival

But it is the Drogba, not Torres, who must lead the line at Old Trafford on Sunday. For starters, big name competition appears to bring the best out in him.

The big Ivorian responded to the arrival of Andriy Shevchenko in 2006 by scoring a then-career best 33 goals for Chelsea the following season, and Torres’ presence appears to have had a similar effect.

Drogba has still to hit top goalscoring form since contracting malaria in October last year, but he is the main reason why Chelsea have taken 25 points from a possible 27 in their last nine games despite never looking their imperious best.

With Drogba leading the line, Chelsea are a formidable attacking force. With Torres, they are a team carrying a passenger. If Ancelotti thinks any different, he would be well-advised to re-watch the tapes of his side’s Champions League exit at Old Trafford last month.

Chelsea looked toothless and sluggish for well over an hour of that game until their manager lost patience with Torres and handed Drogba the unenviable task of rescuing the tie inside the last 20 minutes. The 33-year-old did not succeed, but accomplished more in his brief cameo than Torres has since January.

United’s excellent central defensive partnership of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic will feel no fear if they see the Spaniard’s name on the team sheet again on Sunday.

Nor is pairing the two together a viable option. On the occasions when it has been tried, the whole team has suffered.

Drogba and Torres have struggled to play together since the latter's January arrival

Playing two central strikers necessitates a narrow four-man diamond midfield and an over-reliance on the full-backs for width, and Chelsea have been found out very quickly by both United and Liverpool when playing this way recently.

Even on a purely footballing level, when they have been on the pitch together, Torres and Drogba have appeared at best incapable of playing together and at worst unwilling to try.

In such a situation, Ancelotti must go with the more effective choice. And, of course, Torres would still be a potentially dangerous one man 'plan B' if Chelsea are forced to go for broke late on at Old Trafford.

Chelsea will not necessarily win if Drogba starts on Sunday, but they will have a fighting chance. If Torres starts, all available evidence suggests they will lose.

After all he has seen over the past few weeks and months, it is almost inconceivable that privately Ancelotti has not reached this same conclusion, despite what he says in public.

Consequently, if he selects Torres to lead the line against United, it must be interpreted as an attempt to indulge the Chelsea owner to the detriment of his side's chances.

But any such attempt at indulgence would prove fruitless for the Italian. 

Roman Abramovich has shown himself to be a man who will not countenance failure, even if he has contributed to it. He has no record of showing mercy to his managers or even acknowledging his part in their downfall, and there is no reason to assume this will change.

It will be Carlo Ancelotti’s judgment, and probably his job, on the line at Old Trafford on Sunday. Therefore it is his own judgment by which he must abide.

Resilient United are worthy champions

Exceptional team spirit and resilience are the hallmarks of this United side

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, folks, but the title race is pretty much over. 

Despite the fact that Arsenal and Chelsea will not, and indeed cannot, admit it, and despite Arsene Wenger and Carlo Ancelotti's unwavering public adherence to the mantra of "it's not over yet", it feels as though a choir of fat women ought to be bellowing their lungs out somewhere after this weekend's Premier League results.

How can I be so sure, you may ask, when the Gunners only trail leaders Manchester United by seven points with a game in hand, and when Sir Alex Ferguson's side still face tough tests against both of the sides chasing them in their remaining seven matches?

It might be because, since Arsenal haven't beaten United in any competition since November 2008, with  United emerging victorious in eight of the last 11 meetings between the two sides, I don't think much of their chances of beating the Red Devils at the Emirates next month.

It might also be because, despite what Carlo Ancelotti says publicly, Chelsea have accepted they are now too far off the pace to defend their Premier League crown, and so will focus their efforts on salvaging a disappointing season by finally satisfying owner Roman Abramovich's desire to win the Champions League - thereby possibly making May's league clash at Old Trafford a dead rubber, and reducing Arsenal's chances of getting the United slip-up they will require to become champions.

But it isn't.

Ultimately, the reason why I can see no destination for the Premier League trophy other than Old Trafford has become particularly clear for all to see in recent weeks, and it is this: No matter how unconvincing they may be or vulnerable they may look, this Manchester United team will simply not allow this title to slip through their fingers, and their rivals are incapable of prising it from their grasp.

The month of March provided the last real opportunity for Chelsea and Arsenal to seize the initiative in the title race. Two defeats in a week, at Stamford Bridge and at Anfield, threatened to derail United's inexorable progress towards a 19th league title, and the time was ripe for the chasing pack to ramp up the pressure.

Carlo Ancelotti's Chelsea did their bit, defeating the champions-elect, their 'noisy neighbours' and Blackpool to take maximum points from their three matches.

However, the horrendous crash in form they endured from November to February meant the Blues would always be fighting an uphill task to catch the leaders, and last week's draw at Stoke - while being far from the worst result of a difficult season - has provided the straw which breaks the camel's back in terms of their title chances.

If United's stutterings had momentarily left the door to the title slightly ajar for Chelsea, it had been swung wide open for Arsenal.

Had the Gunners beaten Sunderland and Blackburn at the Emirates and West Brom on the road - tough but limited opposition - they would currently trail Sir Alex Ferguson's men by a single point, as well as holding a game in hand over the leaders.

But the trauma of Carling Cup Final defeat to Birmingham at the end of February appears to  have sparked a fire which has engulfed the North Londoners' season and put paid to their trophy aspirations, with their only win in any competition in March coming in an FA Cup tie against Leyton Orient.

Arsenal's failure to turn up the heat on United in their moment of weakness means the Red Devils' lead at the top of the Premier League stands at seven points with seven matches remaining.

Although the Gunners can close the gap to four by winning their game in hand, any argument that they can still become champions rests on the assumptions both that they will drop less points than United between now and the end of the season and that they are capable of handling the pressure & adversity which must be overcome in a title race - assumptions for which there is little or no evidence.

Should United go on to win their fourth Premier League crown in five years, there can be no argument that they have done so partly as a result of the weaknesses of their rivals.

The inconsistency of Chelsea and Arsenal has been shocking and comical in equal measure at times, as has the lack of ambition shown by Man City boss Roberto Mancini, whose negative tactics and blinkered pursuit of Champions League qualification has stifled his side's ability to play a more active role in one of the most open title races of the past decade.

It is also undeniable that Sir Alex Ferguson's "Class of 2010/11" cannot compare, both in terms of individual or collective quality, either to the treble-winning vintage of 1999 or to the one which, propelled by the goals of Cristiano Ronaldo, dominated English football for three years from 2006 to 2009 and reached two consecutive Champions League finals.

In fact, all of the Premier League's established contenders - with the possible exception of Arsenal - have declined over the last two seasons, and emerging powers Man City and Tottenham have proved themselves not yet ready to mount a sustained domestic challenge.

But to use any of this to argue that no one deserves to win the title this year is just plain wrong.

Sure, this United side will most likely not go down as one of the greatest in the club's illustrious history, but this group of players does possess one particular quality which is truly remarkable, one which sets them apart from every other team in the land. I'm talking about resilience.

Resilience is not simply coming back from a goal or two to win a match, or bouncing back from a bad defeat one week with a victory the week after. It is a mental toughness, an unshakeable belief that whatever the scoreline, whatever the opposition, refereeing injustice or any other setback you may face, you can - nay, will - find a way to win.

United's January comeback win over Blackpool may prove a defining moment

It is a quality which has become synonymous with Manchester United Football Club throughout Sir Alex Ferguson's long reign as manager, but never has it seemed so firmly entrenched within the collective mindset as with the current playing staff at Old Trafford.

Of course, the reason for this could be that, because this United side are more vulnerable than their predecessors, resilience is called upon more than ever before to get them out of bad situations which individual or team errors have gotten them in to.

But, to a large extent, the nature of the explanation is irrelevant as far as the basic point is concerned: it is United's stubborn refusal to lose which has enabled them to keep their noses ahead in the Premier League title race, and it is this same stubbornness which looks increasingly likely to see them over the line.

Manchester United's "never say die" attitude has become the stuff of footballing legend, but this year it also has a basis in cold, hard, statistical fact.

The Red Devils have gleaned 22 extra points from the second half of Premier League matches this season having been in losing or drawing positions at half time, while surrendering just nine from winning or drawing positions - meaning they are 13 points better off in the table as a result of second half performances.

When the same calculation is done for Arsenal and Chelsea, it is found that the Londoners are only five and seven points better off respectively. On average, United's second half performances have given them seven extra Premier League points more than their main title rivals - and seven points just happens to be  the current gap between United in first and Arsenal in second.

But the significance of United's late rallies goes beyond merely points. Their psychological impact can be devastating. One cannot underestimate the effect knowledge of United's overturning of a two goal half time deficit at West Ham had on Chelsea prior to their draw at Stoke - where it was being broadcast on the stadium screens - or on Arsenal before their frustrating stalemate at home with Blackburn.

These comebacks also have a profound influence on the mindset of United's prospective opponents. The reputation which Sir Alex Ferguson's men have earned for finishing matches strongly means that, even when they find themselves in front, teams rarely believe they can close the deal against United.

Consequently, their natural tendency tends to be to try to protect their lead by defending deep in the last twenty minutes of the match, which inadvertantly makes them more vulnerable to the Red Devil's late attacking onslought. In short, United coming back to win has become a kind of self-fulfilling prophesy.

If the Premier League trophy does find its way to Old Trafford in May for a record 19th time, it will not be United's typically formidable home record which sticks in the mind. It will be the comeback victories  away from home over Blackpool and West Ham, the earning of a point at Aston Villa when all seemed lost, or Dimitar Berbatov's 88th minute winner over Bolton at Old Trafford which gave a ten-man United side a much-needed three points.

It will be the fact that all of this was achieved in spite of Rio Ferdinand and Antonio Valencia's lengthy absences through injury, in spite of the ageing legs of the remarkable Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs, and in spite of the worst year, on the pitch and off it, of Wayne Rooney's career. It will be the overcoming of all this adversity which may serve to convince Sir Alex that his 12th league title as United boss may be among the sweetest of the lot.

By concentrating on the mental strengths of this United side, I have not intended to denigrate its technical qualities.

Wayne Rooney's star may not have blazed this season as it did last, but Nani and Dimitar Berbatov have matured into performers of match-winning quality, Javier Hernandez and Chris Smalling have made a decisive impact in spite of their tender years, and in captain Nemanja Vidic, United have probably the best centre-half in world football.

But, as the over-used sporting maxim goes, to win when not playing well is the sign of champions.

After 25 years at the top of the English game, no one knows this better than Sir Alex Ferguson. And it appears his current side know it too. They will win the Premier League, simply because they refuse to lose it. 

Abramovich must not alienate Ancelotti

Ray Wilkins' sacking may prove the final straw for Ancelotti

Oh, how the mighty can fall. Barely a month ago, Chelsea were five points clear at the top of the Premier League, and looked like the only legitimate contenders for this year's title. Four games and three defeats later, and the defending champions have somehow contrived to blow the race wide open.

Viewed in isolation, this downturn in form could be seen as a problem rather than a crisis. Defeats away at Liverpool and especially at home to Sunderland were admittedly the inevitable result of poor team performances, but the Blues will consider themselves unlucky to lose at St Andrews last Saturday, having peppered Ben Foster's goal for well over an hour.

Moreover,  these reverses were suffered in the absence of key players such as Essien, Lampard and Terry. And despite recent setbacks, the West Londoners remain top of the Premier League courtesy of a superior goal difference, with plenty of games coming up providing the opportunity to rebuild their advantage.

But it is clear that the problems at Stamford Bridge run deeper than simply injuries and a run of bad results.

Rumours are rife that manager Carlo Ancelotti has been appalled at the ruthless manner of Ray Wilkins' sacking and the totalitarian way in which head scout Michael Emenalo was promoted to replace him, and that the Italian is now considering his future.

Ancelotti himself denied such reports at a scheduled press conference before the Champions League clash with MSK Zilina. But his comments to the media on Wilkins and Emenalo are indicative of a man who, rather than having an active role in directing club policy, is being compelled to tow the party line.

The 51-year-old has repeatedly asserted that neither Wilkins' dismissal nor Emenalo's promotion were his decision. Moreover, when he was pressed on his feelings towards the matter, the Italian simply stated: "I am not here to explain how I feel in this moment. I am a professional and I will continue to work." It appears to be a case of 'if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all.'

Nor is there any reason to disbelieve Ancelotti when he claims that he was powerless to prevent the sacking of his assistant. For if the appointment of Jose Mourinho in June 2004 highlighted Roman Abramovich's burning desire for success, the swift sacking of 'the Special One' three years later indicated that the Blues owner's desire for unrivaled control of all things Chelsea was no less ardent. Ever since, the Russian billionaire has gradually become more and more hands-on in his approach to his 'toy'.

It was, in fact, for these precise reasons that Carlo Ancelotti was top of the list to succeed Luiz Felipe Scolari at Chelsea in the first place. Having spent eight years in charge at AC Milan, Ancelotti was well used to the unique pressures of working for an overbearing employer in Silvio Berlusconi, and was consequently perfectly happy to be a head coach rather than a manager.

It was a perfect fit, and one which yielded immediate results.

Under Ancelotti's guidance, Chelsea ended Manchester United's three year dominance of the Premier League, and completed the first league-and-cup double in their history with victory over Portsmouth at Wembley. The former Milan man stated that he would  happily stay at Chelsea for ten years, and Blues fans dared to hope for a return to the stability which had been lacking since the departure of Mourinho.

But since then, things have begun to unravel. Abramovich's desire for a new age of financial prudence at Stamford Bridge - completely understandable considering the level of his investment to date - correctly saw over-paid, aging and expendable stars such as Ballack and Deco shown the door in the summer. However, the list of departures was considerably longer than the list of arrivals, and consequently Chelsea must now negotiate a difficult season with dangerously depleted resources.

This lack of squad depth was always likely to be exposed by the most competitive domestic league in the world, and the Blues appear a far less intimidating proposition minus the drive of Essien, the creativity of Lampard and the leadership of Terry. The onus is now on youth to provide a credible 'Plan B' when things are going wrong - something which the likes of McEachran, Bruma, Kakuta, Van Aanholt and Sturridge have so far failed to provide, despite their obvious promise.

A dearth of options threatens to derail Chelsea's ambitions on the pitch, but this pales into insignificance when compared to the tensions off the field which threaten to undermine all of the good work done at Stamford Bridge over the past twelve months.

Carlo Ancelotti may have been chosen for his willingness to cede control of various managerial responsibilities, but he has quite rightly not taken kindly to having the make-up of his technical team dictated to him - especially considering a trusted assistant has been unscrupulously removed to make way for a man with absolutely no coaching credentials whatsoever.

Roman Abramovich and Ron Gourlay may feel that Ray Wilkins' job was defunct and his wage excessive, but such arguments are, to a large extent, irrelevant. What is relevant is that Carlo Ancelotti certainly viewed Wilkins as having a necessary, and indeed crucial, role to play in the future development of his team.

By sacking Wilkins, the Chelsea hierarchy have put their relationship with their manager in the balance, and this is a huge risk to take. There are not many other, if any, world-class coaches who would tolerate the level of bureaucratic interference that Ancelotti does. If he goes, a viable replacement would not be readily available, and all of the stability built up in the Italian's reign would be lost.

After years of faithful service, the manner of Ray Wilkins' departure has left a sour taste. Roman Abramovich must now ensure that the Carlo Ancelotti era does not suffer a similar fate.