Welcome to my football blog. I'll be covering most of the key issues and stories which dominate top level English and European football over the coming months, and so if you love this fantastic sport as much as I do, I hope you'll appreciate reading and responding to what I've got to say.
Showing posts with label Chelsea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chelsea. Show all posts

Friday, 12 August 2011

Premier League Predictions 2011/12


Even aside from Mario Balotelli, there are many reasons to be excited about the upcoming Premier League season.

The £38million signing of Sergio Aguero appears to have strengthened Manchester City’s claim to be considered genuine title contenders, but United’s stirring comeback victory in last Sunday’s Community Shield suggests Sir Alex Ferguson and his latest crop are going to make their “noisy neighbours” fight for every inch of the success they hope to achieve.

There is a fresh buzz around Chelsea, where a progressive young manager with an illustrious – if short – track record is looking to revive the aging limbs of the 2010 champions and inspire them to recapture former glories. Is Andre Villas-Boas the new “Special One”? Time will tell.

The Red half of Merseyside is also awash with optimism ahead of the new campaign, with Liverpool legend Kenny Dalglish backed by Fenway Sports Group to the tune of almost £100million and charged with the task of trying to form the club’s first title-winning side since 1990.

In north London, however, the mood is not quite so positive. The solitary arrival of Brad Friedel has done little to convince Tottenham fans that their club is capable of breaking back into the top four, while rivals Arsenal are bracing themselves for the seemingly inevitable departures of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri and manager Arsene Wenger faces up to the most testing season of his Gunners reign.

The promoted trio of QPR, Norwich and Swansea enter the season with confidence and the promise of attacking football. Will they surprise and thrive against their more established opponents, or be worn down by long and arduous Premier League campaigns? Whatever their fates, the battle at the bottom promises to be even closer than the one at the top.

Over the course of the season all these issues will be settled, but until then observers like me have to content ourselves with idle predictions. Without further ado, then, here are my thoughts on what lies in store for all 20 Premier League teams…

1st - Manchester United


It’s hard to look beyond last season’s champions for the big prize again this time around. Sir Alex Ferguson may have lost a wealth of experience in retired duo Edwin van der Sar and Paul Scholes, but replacing them at Old Trafford is a crop of formidably talented young players.

David De Gea looks an extremely capable, if slightly raw, successor to the big Dutchman between the sticks. Tom Cleverley, back from a productive loan at Wigan Athletic last term, is ready to add energy and guile to the United midfield, while Danny Welbeck and Federico Macheda will further bolster an already rich array of attacking talents.

Ashley Young and Phil Jones provide further strength in depth. If Wesley Sneijder completes a much-touted move from Inter Milan, United’s claim to a 20th league title will become even harder to dispute.
 
2nd - Manchester City
 
 
Last season, there was a feeling among many observers – including this one – that while City enjoyed their most successful campaign in recent memory, it could have been so much more, if only Roberto Mancini had been willing to take the handbrake off his talented team.

The same applies this year. Sergio Aguero’s arrival is a powerful statement of intent from the Eastlands hierarchy, but also one which will be in vain if Mancini once again falls into the trap of thinking one point is better than none. Fortune favours the brave, and never more so than in this league.

There is a worry that City’s domestic aspirations could be derailed by a maiden Champions League campaign, in much the same way as Tottenham’s were last year. But Mancini has a far greater depth of resources at his disposal than Harry Redknapp, and this should ensure his side can challenge on all fronts.
 
3rd - Chelsea
 
 
Andre Villas-Boas may be the new name over the manager’s door at Stamford Bridge, but not much else has changed. This remains largely the same squad, aging and arguably lacking in hunger, which began to creak badly last season and put paid to Carlo Ancelotti’s hopes of building on a superb Double-winning first season in charge.

Moreover, there remains the same owner, one who plans in months rather than years and who refuses to countenance failure, even if it is his own. While the signings of Romelu Lukaku and Oriol Romeu hint at some form of long-term planning at the club, there is no reason to suggest it has been extended to the role of manager.

It is impossible to escape the feeling that should Villas-Boas’ Chelsea go on a bad run and – God forbid – fail to win the Champions League, rumours hinting at his inevitable exit will begin to surface. It is not an atmosphere which is conducive to success.
 
4th - Arsenal
 
 
I’m willing to bet Arsene Wenger has never felt under so much pressure.

Gunners fans, exasperated by the continuing wait for a trophy, have been pushed to the point of rebellion by the Frenchman’s continuing stubbornness to act decisively in the transfer market and a significant hike in season ticket prices.

The boos reverberating around the Emirates Stadium during the eponymous friendly tournament a couple of weeks ago are the most significant and worrying development to date in the relationship between Wenger and the fans.

If no more new faces come in and, worse, Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri leave, the Gunners boss will be under huge pressure to get off to a good start to the season. If the team falters, he could for the first time face concerted calls for his resignation.
 
With or without Fabregas and Nasri, Arsenal are still not capable of winning the title. It is my belief, however, that they will hang on to fourth place from Liverpool and Spurs – just – even if they lose the midfield duo.
 
5th - Liverpool
 
 
Liverpool ended last season strongly, but the performances yielded from a team under no pressure can be misleading. The weight of expectation will accompany Dalglish’s efforts this time around, and despite some eye-watering summer spending, his team is not ready to mount a concerted title charge.

The level of understanding forged between expensive strike duo Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez will be key to the success they do have, however. If the pair can hit it off, they will worry any defence in the country.

Despite some notable additions, Liverpool’s midfield is still not the equal of any of the four sides ahead of them, and captain Steven Gerrard’s persistent injury problems are a cause of growing concern. The Reds also lack a top centre-back to complement ever-committed local boy Jamie Carragher.

A work in progress then, but should still push Arsenal hard for fourth.
 
6th - Tottenham Hotspur
 
 
Even if they do manage to prevent star man Luka Modric leaving for Chelsea, Tottenham’s lack of significant activity in the transfer market makes it hard to see them improve on last season’s showing.

Spurs fans will hope Brad Friedel will prove a more reliable presence between the sticks, but the real problems lie up front.

Neither Jermaine Defoe, Roman Pavlyuchenko nor Peter Crouch have the class to capitalize on the quality of service provided by a stellar midfield, and this is borne out by the trio’s modest goal returns last term.

Unless ‘Arry works his magic in the last hours of the transfer window, I fear sixth is as good as it will get for Tottenham.
 
7th - Fulham
 
 
Fulham may not have caught the imagination in the transfer market this summer, but then they don’t need to.

They possess a very capable, settled first team squad which has secured consistent top half finishes for both Roy Hodgson and Mark Hughes, and there is no reason why they won’t repeat the feat under new man Martin Jol.

Jol is a good fit for Fulham. The expansive passing style the Dutchman became known for at Spurs will go down well at Craven Cottage, and is a pretty seamless continuation of how the side have been playing for a number of years now.

Fulham are a shoe-in for the top-half and, if they can keep star striker Bobby Zamora fit, should come top of the “best of the rest” league outside the top six.
 
8th - Everton
 
 
David Moyes just cannot catch a break. I’m willing to bet he’s never even been lucky enough to find a tenner lying discarded in the street, never mind a spare £10million to spend on a striker.

Once again, new signings have been conspicuous at Goodison Park only by their absence as beleaguered owner Bill Kenwright continues his fruitless search for fresh investment in the club.

Yet Moyes has become quite adept at swimming against the tide of Premier League spending. His hard-working, experienced and loyal squad of players have had more than enough about them in recent seasons to maintain a consistent top half presence, and I don’t expect that to change this year.
 
9th - Stoke City
 
 
Tony Pulis’ much-maligned side finally began to receive some long overdue credit last season by reaching the FA Cup final. Their reward is an inaugural Europa League adventure this time around, and it is one I suspect they will enjoy without experiencing a decline in their domestic form.

The job Pulis has done over the past three seasons has been nothing short of magnificent, bringing Stoke into the top flight and establishing them as mid-table regulars.

In doing so, he has made positive, and indeed necessary, changes to the way the team plays. They are now, if no more subtle, then at least a little more diverse in their approach, and in the Britannia Stadium they possess one of the Premier League’s genuine fortresses.
 
10th - West Bromwich Albion
 
 
Last season was about Roy Hodgson’s redemption. This one is about consolidation. After finding themselves in the heady heights of mid-table rather than a desperate relegation scrap last term, West Brom’s task this year is simply to make sure the good times continue.

As far as that aim is concerned, the early signs are promising. The key components of last season’s surprise packages have been retained and bolstered with several shrewd additions. Ben Foster is literally a safe pair of hands in goal, while Zoltan Gera will add quality and energy to the midfield.

But perhaps most importantly, Shane Long has arrived from Reading to hopefully lessen the scoring burden last season placed almost entirely on the outstanding Peter Odemwingie. In summary, the Baggies should have more than enough class to enjoy a trouble-free season.
 
11th - Aston Villa
 
 
It’s safe to say the mood has been better around Villa Park.

After a season in which they had to endure Martin O’Neill’s shock departure five days before the start of the campaign and a prolonged flirtation with the relegation zone under successor Gerard Houllier before January signing Darren Bent’s timely arrival lifted them to a respectable mid-table finish, Villa fans could have been forgiven for thinking the bad times were over.

They still might be, but owner Randy Lerner has taken a huge – as well as hugely unpopular – gamble in appointing Alex McLeish to take charge of the team for the new campaign. McLeish only had the length of the city to travel to assume his new post, having previously been in charge of arch-rivals Birmingham City. As if that wasn’t bad enough, he’d just got them relegated.

Villa fans have also looked on with dismay as first team stalwarts Ashley Young, Stewart Downing and Brad Friedel have departed. The replacements – Charles N’Zogbia and Shay Given – are capable enough, but McLeish knows he will have to get off to a fast start this season, or the Villa Park faithful could make his position untenable very quickly.

With or without McLeish, Villa’s admittedly depleted squad still has enough about it to stay clear of any trouble.
 
12th - Sunderland
 
 
It’s all change at Sunderland this summer, with seven players exiting the Stadium of Light and eight coming in, as Steve Bruce looks to improve on the squad which showcased European form in the first half of last season and relegation form after the turn of the year.

Increasing squad depth has been Bruce’s main aim, to avoid the fatigue and injuries which led to his side’s spectacular slump last term. Steed Malbranque is the only senior player to depart, while the new arrivals are almost all of proven Premier League quality.

Manchester United duo John O’Shea and Wes Brown will add experience and steel to the Mackems’ occasionally brittle backline, while Craig Gardner and David Vaughan will contribute drive and energy to the midfield.

Up front, Connor Wickham and Korean Ji-Dong Won promise future rather than immediate impact, so the scoring burden will continue to rest largely on the shoulders of the mercurial Asamoah Gyan.
 
13th - Newcastle United
 
 
To say the transfer strategy which Mike Ashley and co. have pursued this summer is strange is like saying Manchester wasn’t top of Carlos Tevez’s list of potential summer holiday destinations.

Some of the additions boss Alan Pardew has made to his squad look shrewd. Midfielder Yohan Cabaye, signed from French champions Lille, is a full France international and should add a touch of assurance and class to the Toon midfield. Demba Ba impressed last season in a poor West Ham team, and looks to have all the attributes to be a success in the Premier League.

But these new signings, along with wingers Gabriel Obertan and Sylvain Marveaux, have done nothing to persuade the club’s fans that the £35million received for Andy Carroll in January will be reinvested.

Instead, other key players have been discarded. Club captain Kevin Nolan has been allowed to leave for West Ham, Jose Enrique has followed Carroll to Liverpool and Joey Barton has felt exasperated enough by developments at the club to make his feelings known to the world on Twitter.

With the spine of this team having been ripped out and replaced, it’s almost impossible to predict Newcastle’s fate with certainty, but I’m willing to bet there are still quite a few teams worse than them in the top flight.
 
14th - Bolton Wanderers
 
 
Owen Coyle was rightly commended for his achievements with Bolton last season. For a long time his side looked capable of both qualifying for Europe through the Premier League and reaching the FA Cup final, all the while showcasing a style of football which went some way towards rehabilitating the image of the club in the eyes of football purists.

But then it all fell apart. A 5-0 thrashing in the FA Cup semi-final against Stoke had a devastating effect on squad morale, and the Trotters lost each of their last six games to slump to 14th.  The bad news for this campaign is they don’t look capable of improving on that showing this time around.

Coyle has wisely guarded against the possibility of a serious injury of the kind which midfielder Stuart Holden suffered against Manchester United last season with the acquisitions of Nigel Reo-Coker from Aston Villa and Darren Pratley from newly-promoted Swansea, and winger Chris Eagles is an exciting signing from Burnley.

But it’s up front where the problems lie. Top scorer Johan Elmander has departed for Galatasaray, while there will be no repeat of Daniel Sturridge’s sensational loan spell at the end of last season. Coyle is still trying gamely to bolster his attacking options before the end of the month, but if he doesn’t, a lack of goals could seriously inhibit Bolton’s progress.
 
15th - Wolverhampton Wanderers
 
 
Given Mick McCarthy’s men stayed up only by the skin of their teeth on the final day last season, it may appear strange for me to have predicted Wolves to finish as high as 15th this term.

Except, that is, when you consider that Blackburn finished 15th last year and yet were still involved in the relegation scrap until the very last day. I expect this year’s tussle at the bottom to be just as open.

McCarthy has gone for quality rather than quantity in the transfer market this summer. Roger Johnson, who proved himself one of the top flight’s most reliable defenders at Birmingham, has come in and assumed the captain’s armband, while Jamie O’Hara has returned to Molineux on a permanent deal.

But like Bolton, Wolves’ problems lie not with keeping goals out, but with putting them in at the other end. Last season’s top scorer Steven Fletcher notched 10 in the league, but he needs more support from the likes of Doyle, Ebanks-Blake and more attack-minded members of the midfield. If he doesn’t get it, Wolves could be in for another struggle.
 
16th - Blackburn Rovers
 
 
This outrageous and hilarious club advert might have you believe otherwise, but all is certainly not rosy at Ewood Park.

There still appears to be tension left over from the sacking of Sam Allardyce last season and the team’s subsequent flirtation with relegation, and the mood has not been helped by the sale of homegrown gem Phil Jones to Manchester United.

Key defender Christopher Samba has also had his head turned by reported interest from Arsenal, and his departure would be even more devastating to the club’s ambitions.

Despite some big promises from the Rovers’ hierarchy, the highest profile arrivals at Ewood Park so far this summer are striker David Goodwillie from Dundee United and defender Bruno Ribeiro from Vitoria Setubal. Both are unknown quantities in the Premier League, and it is as yet unclear how much they will be able to contribute to a team which presently fails to excite.

Perhaps only Newcastle and QPR are more shambolicly-run than Blackburn in the Premier League, but nevertheless my feeling is they will survive again – just.
 
17th - Norwich City
 
 
This season is the latest chapter of an amazing story for Norwich. Only two years ago the Norfolk-based club were in League One, reeling from a 7-1 opening day demolition at the hands of Colchester City.

Fortunately for Norwich, however, the manager who inflicted that thrashing soon agreed to assume the reins at Carrow Road, and now Paul Lambert has become the first manager to reach the Premier League with back-to-back promotions since Joe Royle with Manchester City a decade ago.

Now both Lambert and his players face their toughest test yet. Norwich have roared into the Premier League with much the same squad which secured them passage out of England’s third tier, and the learning curve at this level will be steep.

But the Canaries’ biggest asset is their manager. Paul Lambert is proving himself to be one of the most promising managerial talents in Britain and, with him at the helm, I can see Norwich’s success story continuing for at least one more year.
 
18th - Swansea City
 
 
There are many reasons to hope Swansea do survive in the Premier League this season.

Those who value the novelty of having a Welsh team in England’s top flight for the first time ever will of course wish them well, while those who heralded Brendan Rodgers’ men the best footballing side in the Championship last year will hope their expansive approach once again pays dividends this time around.

But as romantic the idea is, I just can’t see it happening. Firstly, the loss of several key players is almost certain to have an effect. Darren Pratley, Dorus De Vries and Fabio Borini were all key components of the team whose late charge secured the Premier League dream last year.

Their replacements – Michael Vorm, Danny Graham and Leroy Lita – are not of proven top flight calibre, and the disruption caused by this turnaround in core personnel may mean Swansea’s vaunted passing game is not quite as fluid as it needs to be in order to save them.
 
19th - Wigan Athletic
 
 
That Wigan are entering their seventh consecutive season in the Premier League is in itself an incredible achievement worthy of praise, but it’s hard to see them being granted an eighth.

The Latics have demonstrated tremendous survival skills in numerous relegation battles over the years, but the yearly exodus of key players from the DW Stadium has stretched the squad to breaking point. The departure of Charles N’Zogbia to Aston Villa could be the straw which ends up breaking the camel’s back if the money received from the deal is not reinvested wisely.

Roberto Martinez’s decision to turn down the Aston Villa job this summer speaks well of both him and of the family culture which exists at Wigan, but I fear he may regret it come May.
 
20th - QPR
 
 
QPR’s title triumph in the Championship last season was all the more astonishing for the fact it was achieved against a backdrop of utter turmoil at all levels of the club.

The credit for the triumph must go entirely to Neil Warnock – QPR’s 10th different manager in four seasons – who shook off constant speculation about his own position and the threat of a points deduction for fielding an ineligible player to guide the club back to the top flight for the first time since 1997, and in doing so secure the seventh promotion of his career.

The Rangers board, which consists of F1 giants Flavio Briatore and Bernie Ecclestone and one of the world’s richest men in Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal, has done nothing to either make Warnock feel secure in his role or back him in the transfer market. All of the club’s summer acquisitions have been players passed up by other Premier League clubs and brought to Loftus Road for nominal fees.

As a result, Warnock must do the best he can with a squad of Championship players heavily reliant on the gifted but hugely temperamental Adel Taarabt. While the Moroccan playmaker clearly has talent, there remain serious questions over his attitude and ability to deal with adversity.

If a new culture of stability and investment doesn’t take hold at Loftus Road soon, I fear QPR’s return to the Premier League could be a brief and miserable one.

Sunday, 26 June 2011

‘Special’ won’t cut it for Villas-Boas at Chelsea

New Blues boss must outdo achievements of former mentor Mourinho and win Champions League to be a success at Stamford Bridge

Chelsea's appointment of 33-year-old former scout Andre Villas-Boas has surprised many
 
For someone who claims to be trying to avoid comparisons to Jose Mourinho, Andre Villas Boas has gone a funny way about it.

One of the Special One’s most trusted assistants over the course of eight years spent at Porto, Chelsea, and then Inter Milan, Villas-Boas ultimately decided to leave his mentor’s side and carve out his own legacy in management.

Yet after an impressively overachieving but brief stint at unfashionable Academica, where did this single-minded and ambitious young coach choose to go to make his mark? Porto, a club still struggling to emerge from the shadow cast by Mourinho’s monumental domestic and European achievements there six years earlier.

Still, make his mark Villas-Boas certainly did. Under the 33-year-old’s astute guidance, Porto won four of the five tournaments they entered, romping to victory in the league by 21 points without losing a single match as well as triumphing in the Portuguese Cup and Europa League.

Along the way, Portugal’s latest coaching whizz-kid broke many of Mourinho’s old records and established himself as a top managerial prospect in his own right. The footballing world was at his feet, with Inter Milan and Chelsea both weighing up the possibility of a summer move to procure his services.

Neither option would have done much to discourage the perception of the 33-year-old as ‘the Special One: Mark II’. 
 
But Villas-Boas is a smart man as well as a talented young coach. While he may continually stress the differences between him and his former boss in press conferences, he has recognised that comparisons with arguably the greatest coach of the past decade could only boost his career prospects, and has used this image to his advantage.

Reportedly the Italian giants were unwilling to stump up the outrageous sum of £13.3million required to release Villas-Boas from his contract, leaving Chelsea the only viable suitor. But even had it been a straight choice between the two, it is likely the Porto boss would have favoured a move to west London anyway.

Why? Partly because the Premier League currently has the edge on Serie A in terms of quality of competition and prestige. Partly also because Villas-Boas underwent much of his coaching development in the UK, first on Uefa coaching courses and then in the corridors of Cobham.

But mainly because although either option would have placed the burden of expectation on Villas-Boas to match Mourinho at the scene of one of the most spectacularly successful chapters in the Special One’s illustrious career, only Chelsea could offer the opportunity for the student to surpass the master.

For despite delivering a trophy haul unprecedented in the club’s history, Mourinho left Chelsea in 2007 feeling relatively unfulfilled by his own impossibly high standards.

The Champions League was the only major trophy to elude Mourinho at Stamford Bridge

Sure, he had ended the Blues’ 50-year wait for a league title and then repeated the trick a year later, but he had not – as he had done at Porto and would go on to do at Inter – brought the Champions League trophy back to Stamford Bridge.

The notable absence of the greatest prize in club football from Chelsea’s modern success story is still referred to with a degree of regret and frustration by Mourinho to this day, just as it is still the source of the unrelenting obsession which drives Roman Abramovich’s astoundingly lavish spending.

For Villas-Boas then, the Champions League represents the greatest opportunity of emerging from the shadow of his former boss. It also happens to be his only chance of long-term survival.

Carlo Ancelotti’s swift demise barely twelve months after he had led the club to its first ever Double illustrates that domestic dominance is now expected rather than cherished at Stamford Bridge. A league title can buy a Chelsea coach another season, at best, but only European glory can make him a permanent fixture.

Just matching Mourinho’s achievements, then, will not be enough.

Abramovich may be addicted to the thrill which success in football brings, but Premier League and FA Cup triumphs no longer provide a sufficient high. Villas-Boas will have to deliver him the ultimate prize, or recent history suggests he will become just the latest in an illustrious list of managerial casualties.
 
The 33-year-old’s task will only be made harder by the fact he inherits a considerably weaker squad to the one Mourinho assumed control of in 2004. 
 
The spine of that title-winning team remains the same in name only, lacking both in youthful hunger and vigour. There is also a distinct absence of cover in many areas – the result of an apparent cost cutting drive last summer, later rendered futile by January’s £75million spending spree.

As well as refreshing the first team ranks, Villas-Boas would also do well to rein in the player power at Stamford Bridge. The likes of John Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba have grown in influence as well as experience over the past few years, and the sway which Chelsea’s captain appears to have with Abramovich is a particular cause for concern.
 
The close relationship between Terry & Abramovich would worry any incoming Chelsea coach
 
But for all the potential pitfalls inherent within it, this is not an impossible job. It is merely a very difficult one. Moreover, it is one for which, despite his relative lack of experience, Villas-Boas may be uniquely well-equipped to flourish in.

Of each of the six previous managers Chelsea have hired and/or fired since 2004, Mourinho lasted the longest in the job – a relative lifetime of three years. 
 
Villas-Boas witnessed first-hand how the Special One managed to maintain a working dialogue with his impulsive and ruthless chairman for all this time, and he was also present as the relationship gradually broke down. This means he is arguably better placed than anyone not only to replicate Mourinho’s successes in this regard, but also to learn from his former boss’s misjudgments.

The other great advantage Villas-Boas has is an established rapport with the Chelsea players, many of whom benefited from the exhaustive scouting reports he diligently compiled during Mourinho’s reign and still retain a genuine respect for him as a result. 
 
Of course, it still remains for the 33-year-old to ensure this relationship now assumes a player-manager dynamic, but the emphatic nature of his success at Porto suggests this won’t be a problem.

It is clearly a massive risk for Villas-Boas to plunge himself into football's ‘lion’s den’ with only 18 months’ worth of managerial experience to his name, but equally massive are the potential rewards. 
 
He has the opportunity to finally emerge from the sizable shadow of Mourinho by completing his former mentor’s ‘unfinished business’ in the Champions League and begin writing his own history in the process.

One thing is clear, however: Anything less than making Chelsea ‘kings of Europe’ will be regarded as a failure, because being ‘Special’ just doesn’t cut it at Stamford Bridge anymore.

Wednesday, 25 May 2011

2010/11 Season Review Part 1: Premier League Predictions


And so, 10 months and 380 matches later, the Premier League season has come to a close. We've had everything: goals, comedy, drama, controversy - and that was just Mario Balotelli.

While this season may have been less than vintage in terms of the quality at the top (although the revisionist pundits will go into overdrive if Manchester United manage to see off Barcelona on Saturday), it can rival any in the Premier League era for sheer unpredictability. 

Ok, so the title 'race' may have ultimately resembled more of a procession towards Old Trafford, and there may have been no surprise entries in the top six, but this year's relegation battle was one of the most dramatic and open in recent memory, with six teams going into the final round of matches still not assured of safety.

And despite the fact that Manchester United ultimately won their record 19th league title fairly easily, they still finished with the lowest points tally of any Premier League champions for a decade. 

None of the top teams looked invincible this year - United were vulnerable on their travels, Chelsea went on holiday for the best part of three months, Manchester City were too negative and Arsenal were, well, Arsenal.

All of which means I wasn't exactly confident when it came to reviewing how my start of season predictions had measured up. It actually turns out I haven't done too badly, although there were also a couple of glaring misjudgments which had the voice of hindsight cackling smugly in the back of my head. Have a look below and see what I mean...

1st - Manchester United (My prediction: 1st)


It was United's superior squad depth, combined with a greater hunger and resilience, which ultimately saw off Chelsea and brought a record 19th title to Old Trafford. 

That it was achieved in spite of Wayne Rooney's horrific start to the season and Rio Ferdinand's persistent injury problems may well make it one of the sweetest for Sir Alex Ferguson too. 

Chris Smalling and twins Fabio and Rafael showed signs they may be stars of the future, while the astonishing Javier Hernandez must be regarded as a star of the present. 

And when the chips were down, the experience and quality of Van Der Sar, Vidic and Giggs enabled United to stand up and be counted. Worthy champions.

2nd - Chelsea (My prediction: 2nd)


Chelsea never even got close to matching last season's double-winning exploits in a frustrating season. 

Attempting to challenge on several fronts with a razor thin squad comprising ageing stars and raw youngsters was never likely to end well, and the mysterious sacking of Ray Wilkins, combined with injuries to the key duo of Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard, marked the beginning of a dramatic slide out of the title picture.

A belated £70million January deadline day transfer spree failed to reignite a stuttering campaign, and the Blues were comfortably seen off by United in both the Premier League and Champions League. 

Marquee signing Fernando Torres looks just as disinterested and off the pace as he did at Liverpool, and only time will tell whether the Spaniard will ever justify his lofty price tag.

The Chelsea squad needs a major overhaul this summer, but the fact that Carlo Ancelotti has now been ruthlessly dismissed, and the club once again plunged into a state of flux, does not bode well for next season. 

3rd - Manchester City (My prediction: 4th)


That Manchester City ultimately finished above Arsenal and, indeed, level on points with Chelsea, says more about the late-season deficiencies of the two London clubs than the class of Roberto Mancini's men.

They certainly deserve their place in the top four, and appeared to grow in confidence as the season went on, but there remains the nagging feeling that this was a 'good' season which could have been 'great', if only Mancini had been brave enough to take the handbrake off his team and challenge the top two.

Not, of course, that City fans will be complaining, and nor should they. A third place finish means they avoid a potentially tricky Champions League qualifier, and victory over Stoke at Wembley gave the club a first trophy in 35 years.

Next season promises much for Old Trafford's 'noisy neighbours'. It will be up to Mancini to deliver.

4th - Arsenal (My prediction: 3rd)


Arsenal continue to be the architects of their own downfall. Once again, a season which appeared so promising fell apart after Easter, and serious questions have been raised as to whether this current Gunners crop possesses the mental strength to end the club's trophy drought, now six years and counting.

This season's Carling Cup should have been the perfect moment for the club to get that particular monkey off it's back, but instead a shocking defeat to Birmingham at Wembley provided the catalyst for another spectacular collapse.

Manager Arsene Wenger has thus far stubbornly refused to be swayed by those suggesting he must be more active in the transfer market, but growing unrest among the Emirates faithful may well force his hand this summer.

As ever with Arsenal, many of the raw components of a successful side are already present. Not many teams in world football can boast the kind of fantasy provided by the likes of Fabregas, Nasri and Arshavin, and Jack Wilshere and Wojciech Szczesny can be stars for years to come.

But the Gunners are still lacking in quality at both ends of the pitch, and their mental fragility in times of adversity has become a source of comedy among the club's rivals.

Wenger must heed the criticisms of his team soon. If he doesn't, one of the most beautiful marriages in football could end in a very messy divorce.

5th - Tottenham Hotspur (My prediction: 6th)


As the more cynical among us suspected, the Champions League proved both a gift and a curse for Tottenham. For a time, Harry Redknapp's side were the must-watch team in Europe, and gave their fans a number of memorable nights on a run which claimed the scalps of both Milan giants.

Inevitably, though, Spurs' league form suffered as a result of their European adventure, and when the latter was ruthlessly ended by Jose Mourinho's Real Madrid, the north Londoners didn't have enough left in the tank to catch the top four.

Still, Liverpool's awful start to the season ensured a fifth placed finish and a shot of the Europa League net season. Whether Redknapp is a fan of the tournament or not, it is European football and represents a realistic chance of silverware.

It may also persuade key players like Luka Modric, Gareth Bale and Rafael Van Der Vaart to remain at the club. If they do stay and a joined by a couple of astute signings, Spurs will be well in the Champions League hunt again next year. 

6th - Liverpool (My prediction: 5th)


My prediction that Liverpool would finish fifth was clearly not based on the assumption that Roy Hodgson would lead the club to its worst start to a league season for over 50 years and depart eight days into the new year, and even a stellar second half of the season wasn't enough to unseat Tottenham in fifth.

The Anfield giants' league position was clearly not reflective of the talent at their disposal when club legend Kenny Dalglish took over in January, and their spectacular resurgence under the Scot since then has done much to create an atmosphere of optimism going forward.

The replacement of a jaded and sulky Fernando Torres with the exciting young strike duo of Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez has reinvigorated a team which had looked in danger of stagnation, and the accomplished performances of local youngsters such as Jay Spearing, John Flanagan and Martin Kelly have raised hopes of a return to the values which originally made Liverpool great.

Significant investment is still needed if the Dalglish's team are once again to challenge the country's elite, but the early signs are that there may be good times ahead for the red half of Merseyside.

7th - Everton (My prediction: 7th)


David Moyes must be wondering why his Everton team never turns up until after Christmas. Once again, an awful start for the Toffees took the shine off a campaign in which one of the Premier League's best managers worked wonders on a criminally small budget.

Despite being without a regular source of goals (top scorer Tim Cahill netted just nine times this term) and enduring a prolonged flirtation with the relegation zone at the start of the season, Moyes has yet again led his team to a respectable top half finish in the league.

Everton are unbeaten at Goodison Park in the Premier League in 2011, and only Chelsea gathered more points in the last 12 rounds of the season. If the Toffees had started their charge earlier, they may well have found themselves in the European hunt.

Moyes' extraordinary feats on Merseyside have prompted many to wonder what he could do at a club with greater financial resources. If he isn't backed by chairman Bill Kenwright in the transfer market this summer, the Scot may well begin to ask himself the same question.

8th - Fulham (My prediction: 9th)
 

A 9th place finish is a just reward for the patience Fulham showed towards Mark Hughes during a shaky start to this season.

The west Londoners always had the class to avoid the relegation dogfight, and as soon as strikers Moussa Dembele, Bobby Zamora and Andy Johnson recovered from lengthy injury layoffs, the goals and results flowed.

Fulham have one of the most underrated squads in the Premier League, and in Hughes they have one of its most capable managers. They may also have another crack at the Europa League next season if the Fair Play award comes through...

9th - Aston Villa (My prediction: 8th)


The £24million Aston Villa paid for Darren Bent in January proved an absolute masterstroke as Gerard Houllier's side finished strongly to drag themselves out of the relegation dogfight and paper over the cracks of a disappointing season.

The former Sunderland man banged in nine goals in 16 appearances after his big money move to ease the Villans' worries and once again prove he is one of the most potent goalscorers in the Premier League, the club may still pay the price of a campaign which fell well short of expectations.

Star winger Ashley Young is widely expected to move on to bigger and better things this summer after a season in which he has impressed for club and country, and it is unclear how willing owner Randy Lerner will be to invest in the squad.

It isn't even clear whether Gerard Houllier will be able to continue as manager after the Frenchman suffered a recurrence of the health problems which blighted his time at Liverpool.

In short, there is much to be done at Villa Park in the coming weeks and months if the club is to once again become a force in the top half of the Premier League.

10th - Sunderland (My prediction: 11th)


It's been a season of two halves for Sunderland. A brilliant start - including that demolition of Chelsea - left Steve Bruce's side dreaming of Europa League football, but a dramatic collapse since the turn of the year briefly left the Black Cats in danger of being sucked into a relegation battle until victories over Wigan and Bolton checked the slide.

The loss of Darren Bent to Aston Villa certainly didn't help, even if the club were compensated to the tune of a cool £24million. Bruce was unable to replace his star striker before the close of the January transfer window, and injuries to Asamoah Gyan and Danny Welbeck meant the side were briefly without any strikers.

Despite their wretched form for much of 2011, Sunderland's first half showing means they are well deserving of a top half finish. If Bruce can find a good striker to replace Bent in the summer and keep midfield prospect Jordan Henderson, they could well repeat the feat next year.

11th - West Brom (My prediction: 18th)


West Brom defied a legion of pre-season predictions - not least this one - by soaring clear of the relegation dogfight and into the comfort of mid-table in their first season back in the Premier League.

The reason? Roy Hodgson. Having failed in the thankless task of managing Liverpool during the slow and painful death of the Hicks and Gillett era, the 63-year-old came to the west midlands determined to restore his reputation. And boy, did he succeed.

Hodgson took over the Baggies mired in the relegation zone and led them on a run which saw only two defeats - one against Wolves with safety already assured, the other against Chelsea - and included a victory over his previous employers at the Hawthorns.

What's more, he managed to do it all whilst allowing offensive talents such as top scorer Peter Odemwingie and Chris Brunt the room to flourish. West Brom have a talented, settled squad and if they spend wisely in the summer, there's no reason why they shouldn't be looking up rather than down next term.

12th - Newcastle United (My prediction: 17th)


Newcastle achieved mid-table respectability almost in spite of themselves this season.

First owner Mike Ashley sacked Chris Hughton midway through the campaign for what appeared to be no better reason than a flying, talking horse in his dream told him to.

Then star striker and former local hero Andy Carroll was sold to Liverpool in January with new boss Alan Pardew having no time to reinvest any of the phenomenal £35million it took to prise the big man away from St James' Park.

Yet in spite of it all, the good ship Toon never strayed into the choppy waters of the relegation battle. Why? Quite simply, because it turns out there was always more to this Newcastle side than a be-ponytailed young target man with a left foot like a cannon.

Alan Pardew proved himself just as capable a Premier League operator as Hughton, the hard working duo of Kevin Nolan and Joey Barton ensured the side were rarely short of drive and invention, and tough-tackling Ivorian Cheik Tiote did enough 'getting stuck in' for an entire midfield.

Oh, and they also had one of the best left-backs in the Premier League in Jose Enrique, who may well follow Carroll to Anfield this summer.

13th - Stoke City (My prediction: 12th)


When the dust settles on their FA Cup disappointment, Stoke fans and players will quickly realise this has been a fantastic season.

Just taking part in the Wembley showpiece against Manchester City was a testiment to the amazing job manager Tony Pulis has done over the last five years at the Britannia, but the fact the Potters didn't allow their glorious cup run to affect their Premier League form (a la Birmingham) is perhaps their greatest achievement of the campaign.

The physical presence and tireless work rate of summer signings Kenwyne Jones and Jonathan Walters gave Pulis' side a formidable attacking threat, while fellow summer arrival Jermaine Pennant opened up a whole new avenue of service for the frontmen on the right flank.

Believe it or not folks, but there's now more to Stoke than Rory Delap long throws, and like them or not, it seems unlikely they'll be exiting the Premier League any time soon.

14th - Bolton Wanderers (My prediction: 15th)


For much of this season Bolton looked on course to embarass me utterly by topping the league below the big boys and finish 7th, but ultimately a wretched run of five defeats from their last five games saw Owen Coyle's side tumble to a much less impressive 14th.

Owen Coyle's side won plaudits as well as points for much of this campaign with their expansive passing style and attacking mentality, but their midfield creativity was severely curtailed when the hugely impressive Stuart Holden suffered a horrible leg break against Manchester United at Old Trafford.

The balance of the team never truly recovered - although their stuttering Premier League form was briefly but significantly boosted by Daniel Sturridge's prolific loan spell - and a promising FA Cup run was emphatically and devastatingly ended by Stoke at Wembley.

Bolton showed signs of real promise this season, but much needs to be done in the summer if the club is to avoid going backwards next term. A little more squad depth wouldn't go amiss, and a replacement must be found for the outgoing Johan Elmander. A decent season though.

15th - Blackburn Rovers (My prediction: 10th)


Ok, I hold my hands up. I predicted Blackburn for a top half finish, and got it badly wrong.

But in my defence, there was no way I could foresee:

1) the club being taken over by Indian chicken magnates (something in me has always wanted to use that phrase) who harboured delusional aspirations of bringing Ronaldinho and Champions League football to Ewood Park

2) reliable Premier League operator Sam Allardyce being mysteriously sacked midway through the season (it appears that flying, talking horse gets around) and replaced by a man with no managerial pedigree whatsoever.

Looking back on it now, the fact that Blackburn are still in the Premier League at all is nothing short of a miracle. Venkys simply got lucky, but they will have to do a crash course on how to run a football club over the summer if Rovers are not to pay for their mistakes in the long term.

But I suspect they won't, and next season will be all the more infuriating for the club's fans and interesting for the rest of us as a result.

16th - Wigan Athletic (My prediction: 16th)


Another year in the Premier League for little old Wigan and a return to prediction form for yours truly (I'm going to enjoy this, because it all disappears up the proverbial cows backside from here on down).

Roberto Martinez's side blended attractive attacking football with at times comical defending to just about sufficient effect to earn another year in the top flight. Survival was once again borne out of a life and death struggle, though, only assured through back-to-back wins over West Ham and Stoke in the final two games of the season.

As has been the case in previous years, Wigan could pay for their continued presence in the Premier League with the loss of their key players. Star winger Charles N'Zogbia is surely destined to play at a higher level, while striker Hugo Rodallega and midfield wonderkid James McCarthy could also leave.

If they do, Martinez will once again have to remodel his side on a shoestring and hope for the best. The good news for him and the club's fans, however, is that Wigan appear to be becoming perennial Premier League survivors.

17th - Wolves (My prediction: 19th)


Wolves stayed in the Premier League by the sheer force of George Elokobi's six pack on the final day of a tortuous season. 

In a topsy turvy campaign, Mick McCarthy's side found themselves deep in the relegation mire despite beating each of England's top three sides at Molineux. 

Misfiring in attack and leaky in defence, it was only Wolves' heart which kept them in the top flight - well, that and the fact there happened to be three sides even worse than they were.

But while survival was ultimately assured - and only just - this season, McCarthy needs to be given the funds to improve the side in every area of the pitch if this is not to prove merely a stay of execution.

18th - Birmingham City (My prediction: 13th)


One of the main lessons we learned from this season is that no good can come of reaching the Carling Cup final. 

Arsenal and Birmingham only recorded five victories between them after their date at Wembley, but the Midlanders' late season collapse was to have much graver consequences.

Just one point from their final six games saw Alex McLeish's side time their plummet into the relegation zone to deadly perfection, and the club's first trophy in 48 years has been sullied by a return to the Championship.

Goals had always proved elusive for this Birmingham team, but the decisive difference this season was the decline of their defence, with Scott Dann's lengthy absence through injury proving a fatal blow.

McLeish has been given the green light to lead the club's promotion charge next term, but with financial difficulties and the departures of key players on the horizon, it will be no easy task.

19th - Blackpool (My prediction: 20th)


Blackpool have so greatly exceeded incredibly low expectations this season that Ian Holloway and his players have had to endure what must have been an infuriating level of condescending praise - not least the odious expression 'breath of fresh air' which has been employed time and time again to steadily less flattering effect.

But this must not take away from the fact that the Tangerines have set a new benchmark for the way low budget Championship sides are expected to approach their season in the big time.

Many observers - this one included - queued up at the start of the campaign to dismiss them as whipping boys, but Blackpool have done so much more than make up the numbers.

They have played with unerring spirit and enterprise, taking on (and occasionally beating) teams of far more lavishly gifted stars, and have done it all with a style which has made them the entertainers of the Premier League.

Most considered it impossible for Blackpool to stay up this season, but they bloody well nearly did it. Ian Holloway's side may have lost their top flight status, but they have gained a legion of admirers.

20th - West Ham United (My prediction: 14th)


For pure dramatic effect, I've saved the biggest misjudgment for last. West Ham entered the season with one of the best squads of all the bottom half teams, and yet have somehow contrived to exit the Premier League ten months later.

In what has been a car crash of a season, it isn't easy to pin point any one factor as most important in the Hammers spectacular demise, whether it be clueless owners who undermined but didn't sack an even more clueless manager, players who wallowed in self-pity and refused to take responsibility for events on the pitch, or just plain old bad luck.

The loss of talismanic captain and FWA Player of the Year Scott Parker for the crucial final weeks of the season was certainly a hammer (excuse the pun) blow, but it need not have been fatal if any form of leadership had been present in the dugout.

Avram Grant's continuing career as a Premier League manager seems more bizarre with each passing week, and it is only to be hoped his moment in the limelight is over.

But even with Grant gone, for West Ham, the damage is already done. The club must now embark on a slow and steady process of rebuilding in the Championship, in the hope that by the time they move into the shiny new Olympic Stadium in Stratford, they have a team worthy of the venue.

Friday, 6 May 2011

Ancelotti's judgment on the line at Old Trafford

Chelsea's beleaguered boss must abandon the Fernando Torres experiment for Sunday's title decider, even if it costs him his job

Ancelotti's team selection may be crucial at Old Trafford as Chelsea seek to retain their title

Against all the odds, Chelsea once again find themselves in with a chance of winning a title they had done their very best to lose.

Arsenal’s defeat of leaders Manchester United on Sunday leaves Carlo Ancelotti’s side three points off the pace with an identical goal difference and with what Sir Alex Ferguson admits is a “massive chance” to frustrate United in their quest for a record 19th league crown.

With a decisive trip to Old Trafford to come this weekend, the Blues go into the final three games of the Premier League season knowing maximum points will almost certainly see them retain their title.

And this is all despite a wretched run which saw them record only five wins in 16 games between early November and mid-February,  and despite the fact that they have suffered seven defeats overall this term.

To describe this as an extremely difficult campaign for Carlo Ancelotti would be a considerable understatement.

Attempting to compete for domestic and European honours with a criminally thin squad of ageing stars against a backdrop of boardroom interference has proved a fool’s errand, and a belated £70million January transfer spree proved insufficient to deliver the Champions League trophy Roman Abramovich so greatly craves.

After all he has endured, it is likely Ancelotti will leave Stamford Bridge at the end of the season regardless of the result at Old Trafford on Sunday, either as yet another victim of the Russian billionaire owner’s well-worn axe or of his own volition.

And this is exactly why, having been presented with one last opportunity to lead Chelsea to an unlikely defence of their Premier League crown, the Italian must be bloody-minded, and disregard any prior deference to Abramovich’s vanity when picking the eleven players who will face United.

The presence of a misfiring Torres has created a huge problem for Ancelotti

I am talking, of course, about Fernando Torres, the £50million gift that just isn’t giving. It is the Spaniard who represents the biggest threat to the Blues’ chances of seizing the initiative in the title race this weekend.

Torres’ struggles over the last 18 months have been well documented, and there are countless theories which have sought to explain his drastic decline in form.

Protestations of unhappiness on Merseyside secured a big money move to west London, but if anything the 27-year-old has looked even more lost in his new surroundings, as he tries to adapt to a new system, new teammates and a new way of playing.

Ancelotti has tried gamely to find a style which brings the best out of his new frontman, but all have involved shoe-horning too many square pegs into round holes. Torres’ epic Chelsea drought may be over, but one goal from fifteen appearances remains a damning indictment of both player and manager.

Ancelotti recently described Torres in a press conference as ‘the present and future of Chelsea.’ He’s half right.
 
Having spent so much money on bringing in a world-class striker six years the junior of Didier Drogba, it is inevitable the powers that be at Stamford Bridge want to build the next great Blues side around the Spaniard.
 
Didier Drogba's improving form has been an key component in Chelsea's revival

But it is the Drogba, not Torres, who must lead the line at Old Trafford on Sunday. For starters, big name competition appears to bring the best out in him.

The big Ivorian responded to the arrival of Andriy Shevchenko in 2006 by scoring a then-career best 33 goals for Chelsea the following season, and Torres’ presence appears to have had a similar effect.

Drogba has still to hit top goalscoring form since contracting malaria in October last year, but he is the main reason why Chelsea have taken 25 points from a possible 27 in their last nine games despite never looking their imperious best.

With Drogba leading the line, Chelsea are a formidable attacking force. With Torres, they are a team carrying a passenger. If Ancelotti thinks any different, he would be well-advised to re-watch the tapes of his side’s Champions League exit at Old Trafford last month.

Chelsea looked toothless and sluggish for well over an hour of that game until their manager lost patience with Torres and handed Drogba the unenviable task of rescuing the tie inside the last 20 minutes. The 33-year-old did not succeed, but accomplished more in his brief cameo than Torres has since January.

United’s excellent central defensive partnership of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic will feel no fear if they see the Spaniard’s name on the team sheet again on Sunday.

Nor is pairing the two together a viable option. On the occasions when it has been tried, the whole team has suffered.

Drogba and Torres have struggled to play together since the latter's January arrival

Playing two central strikers necessitates a narrow four-man diamond midfield and an over-reliance on the full-backs for width, and Chelsea have been found out very quickly by both United and Liverpool when playing this way recently.

Even on a purely footballing level, when they have been on the pitch together, Torres and Drogba have appeared at best incapable of playing together and at worst unwilling to try.

In such a situation, Ancelotti must go with the more effective choice. And, of course, Torres would still be a potentially dangerous one man 'plan B' if Chelsea are forced to go for broke late on at Old Trafford.

Chelsea will not necessarily win if Drogba starts on Sunday, but they will have a fighting chance. If Torres starts, all available evidence suggests they will lose.

After all he has seen over the past few weeks and months, it is almost inconceivable that privately Ancelotti has not reached this same conclusion, despite what he says in public.

Consequently, if he selects Torres to lead the line against United, it must be interpreted as an attempt to indulge the Chelsea owner to the detriment of his side's chances.

But any such attempt at indulgence would prove fruitless for the Italian. 

Roman Abramovich has shown himself to be a man who will not countenance failure, even if he has contributed to it. He has no record of showing mercy to his managers or even acknowledging his part in their downfall, and there is no reason to assume this will change.

It will be Carlo Ancelotti’s judgment, and probably his job, on the line at Old Trafford on Sunday. Therefore it is his own judgment by which he must abide.