Welcome to my football blog. I'll be covering most of the key issues and stories which dominate top level English and European football over the coming months, and so if you love this fantastic sport as much as I do, I hope you'll appreciate reading and responding to what I've got to say.

Friday, 12 August 2011

Premier League Predictions 2011/12


Even aside from Mario Balotelli, there are many reasons to be excited about the upcoming Premier League season.

The £38million signing of Sergio Aguero appears to have strengthened Manchester City’s claim to be considered genuine title contenders, but United’s stirring comeback victory in last Sunday’s Community Shield suggests Sir Alex Ferguson and his latest crop are going to make their “noisy neighbours” fight for every inch of the success they hope to achieve.

There is a fresh buzz around Chelsea, where a progressive young manager with an illustrious – if short – track record is looking to revive the aging limbs of the 2010 champions and inspire them to recapture former glories. Is Andre Villas-Boas the new “Special One”? Time will tell.

The Red half of Merseyside is also awash with optimism ahead of the new campaign, with Liverpool legend Kenny Dalglish backed by Fenway Sports Group to the tune of almost £100million and charged with the task of trying to form the club’s first title-winning side since 1990.

In north London, however, the mood is not quite so positive. The solitary arrival of Brad Friedel has done little to convince Tottenham fans that their club is capable of breaking back into the top four, while rivals Arsenal are bracing themselves for the seemingly inevitable departures of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri and manager Arsene Wenger faces up to the most testing season of his Gunners reign.

The promoted trio of QPR, Norwich and Swansea enter the season with confidence and the promise of attacking football. Will they surprise and thrive against their more established opponents, or be worn down by long and arduous Premier League campaigns? Whatever their fates, the battle at the bottom promises to be even closer than the one at the top.

Over the course of the season all these issues will be settled, but until then observers like me have to content ourselves with idle predictions. Without further ado, then, here are my thoughts on what lies in store for all 20 Premier League teams…

1st - Manchester United


It’s hard to look beyond last season’s champions for the big prize again this time around. Sir Alex Ferguson may have lost a wealth of experience in retired duo Edwin van der Sar and Paul Scholes, but replacing them at Old Trafford is a crop of formidably talented young players.

David De Gea looks an extremely capable, if slightly raw, successor to the big Dutchman between the sticks. Tom Cleverley, back from a productive loan at Wigan Athletic last term, is ready to add energy and guile to the United midfield, while Danny Welbeck and Federico Macheda will further bolster an already rich array of attacking talents.

Ashley Young and Phil Jones provide further strength in depth. If Wesley Sneijder completes a much-touted move from Inter Milan, United’s claim to a 20th league title will become even harder to dispute.
 
2nd - Manchester City
 
 
Last season, there was a feeling among many observers – including this one – that while City enjoyed their most successful campaign in recent memory, it could have been so much more, if only Roberto Mancini had been willing to take the handbrake off his talented team.

The same applies this year. Sergio Aguero’s arrival is a powerful statement of intent from the Eastlands hierarchy, but also one which will be in vain if Mancini once again falls into the trap of thinking one point is better than none. Fortune favours the brave, and never more so than in this league.

There is a worry that City’s domestic aspirations could be derailed by a maiden Champions League campaign, in much the same way as Tottenham’s were last year. But Mancini has a far greater depth of resources at his disposal than Harry Redknapp, and this should ensure his side can challenge on all fronts.
 
3rd - Chelsea
 
 
Andre Villas-Boas may be the new name over the manager’s door at Stamford Bridge, but not much else has changed. This remains largely the same squad, aging and arguably lacking in hunger, which began to creak badly last season and put paid to Carlo Ancelotti’s hopes of building on a superb Double-winning first season in charge.

Moreover, there remains the same owner, one who plans in months rather than years and who refuses to countenance failure, even if it is his own. While the signings of Romelu Lukaku and Oriol Romeu hint at some form of long-term planning at the club, there is no reason to suggest it has been extended to the role of manager.

It is impossible to escape the feeling that should Villas-Boas’ Chelsea go on a bad run and – God forbid – fail to win the Champions League, rumours hinting at his inevitable exit will begin to surface. It is not an atmosphere which is conducive to success.
 
4th - Arsenal
 
 
I’m willing to bet Arsene Wenger has never felt under so much pressure.

Gunners fans, exasperated by the continuing wait for a trophy, have been pushed to the point of rebellion by the Frenchman’s continuing stubbornness to act decisively in the transfer market and a significant hike in season ticket prices.

The boos reverberating around the Emirates Stadium during the eponymous friendly tournament a couple of weeks ago are the most significant and worrying development to date in the relationship between Wenger and the fans.

If no more new faces come in and, worse, Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri leave, the Gunners boss will be under huge pressure to get off to a good start to the season. If the team falters, he could for the first time face concerted calls for his resignation.
 
With or without Fabregas and Nasri, Arsenal are still not capable of winning the title. It is my belief, however, that they will hang on to fourth place from Liverpool and Spurs – just – even if they lose the midfield duo.
 
5th - Liverpool
 
 
Liverpool ended last season strongly, but the performances yielded from a team under no pressure can be misleading. The weight of expectation will accompany Dalglish’s efforts this time around, and despite some eye-watering summer spending, his team is not ready to mount a concerted title charge.

The level of understanding forged between expensive strike duo Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez will be key to the success they do have, however. If the pair can hit it off, they will worry any defence in the country.

Despite some notable additions, Liverpool’s midfield is still not the equal of any of the four sides ahead of them, and captain Steven Gerrard’s persistent injury problems are a cause of growing concern. The Reds also lack a top centre-back to complement ever-committed local boy Jamie Carragher.

A work in progress then, but should still push Arsenal hard for fourth.
 
6th - Tottenham Hotspur
 
 
Even if they do manage to prevent star man Luka Modric leaving for Chelsea, Tottenham’s lack of significant activity in the transfer market makes it hard to see them improve on last season’s showing.

Spurs fans will hope Brad Friedel will prove a more reliable presence between the sticks, but the real problems lie up front.

Neither Jermaine Defoe, Roman Pavlyuchenko nor Peter Crouch have the class to capitalize on the quality of service provided by a stellar midfield, and this is borne out by the trio’s modest goal returns last term.

Unless ‘Arry works his magic in the last hours of the transfer window, I fear sixth is as good as it will get for Tottenham.
 
7th - Fulham
 
 
Fulham may not have caught the imagination in the transfer market this summer, but then they don’t need to.

They possess a very capable, settled first team squad which has secured consistent top half finishes for both Roy Hodgson and Mark Hughes, and there is no reason why they won’t repeat the feat under new man Martin Jol.

Jol is a good fit for Fulham. The expansive passing style the Dutchman became known for at Spurs will go down well at Craven Cottage, and is a pretty seamless continuation of how the side have been playing for a number of years now.

Fulham are a shoe-in for the top-half and, if they can keep star striker Bobby Zamora fit, should come top of the “best of the rest” league outside the top six.
 
8th - Everton
 
 
David Moyes just cannot catch a break. I’m willing to bet he’s never even been lucky enough to find a tenner lying discarded in the street, never mind a spare £10million to spend on a striker.

Once again, new signings have been conspicuous at Goodison Park only by their absence as beleaguered owner Bill Kenwright continues his fruitless search for fresh investment in the club.

Yet Moyes has become quite adept at swimming against the tide of Premier League spending. His hard-working, experienced and loyal squad of players have had more than enough about them in recent seasons to maintain a consistent top half presence, and I don’t expect that to change this year.
 
9th - Stoke City
 
 
Tony Pulis’ much-maligned side finally began to receive some long overdue credit last season by reaching the FA Cup final. Their reward is an inaugural Europa League adventure this time around, and it is one I suspect they will enjoy without experiencing a decline in their domestic form.

The job Pulis has done over the past three seasons has been nothing short of magnificent, bringing Stoke into the top flight and establishing them as mid-table regulars.

In doing so, he has made positive, and indeed necessary, changes to the way the team plays. They are now, if no more subtle, then at least a little more diverse in their approach, and in the Britannia Stadium they possess one of the Premier League’s genuine fortresses.
 
10th - West Bromwich Albion
 
 
Last season was about Roy Hodgson’s redemption. This one is about consolidation. After finding themselves in the heady heights of mid-table rather than a desperate relegation scrap last term, West Brom’s task this year is simply to make sure the good times continue.

As far as that aim is concerned, the early signs are promising. The key components of last season’s surprise packages have been retained and bolstered with several shrewd additions. Ben Foster is literally a safe pair of hands in goal, while Zoltan Gera will add quality and energy to the midfield.

But perhaps most importantly, Shane Long has arrived from Reading to hopefully lessen the scoring burden last season placed almost entirely on the outstanding Peter Odemwingie. In summary, the Baggies should have more than enough class to enjoy a trouble-free season.
 
11th - Aston Villa
 
 
It’s safe to say the mood has been better around Villa Park.

After a season in which they had to endure Martin O’Neill’s shock departure five days before the start of the campaign and a prolonged flirtation with the relegation zone under successor Gerard Houllier before January signing Darren Bent’s timely arrival lifted them to a respectable mid-table finish, Villa fans could have been forgiven for thinking the bad times were over.

They still might be, but owner Randy Lerner has taken a huge – as well as hugely unpopular – gamble in appointing Alex McLeish to take charge of the team for the new campaign. McLeish only had the length of the city to travel to assume his new post, having previously been in charge of arch-rivals Birmingham City. As if that wasn’t bad enough, he’d just got them relegated.

Villa fans have also looked on with dismay as first team stalwarts Ashley Young, Stewart Downing and Brad Friedel have departed. The replacements – Charles N’Zogbia and Shay Given – are capable enough, but McLeish knows he will have to get off to a fast start this season, or the Villa Park faithful could make his position untenable very quickly.

With or without McLeish, Villa’s admittedly depleted squad still has enough about it to stay clear of any trouble.
 
12th - Sunderland
 
 
It’s all change at Sunderland this summer, with seven players exiting the Stadium of Light and eight coming in, as Steve Bruce looks to improve on the squad which showcased European form in the first half of last season and relegation form after the turn of the year.

Increasing squad depth has been Bruce’s main aim, to avoid the fatigue and injuries which led to his side’s spectacular slump last term. Steed Malbranque is the only senior player to depart, while the new arrivals are almost all of proven Premier League quality.

Manchester United duo John O’Shea and Wes Brown will add experience and steel to the Mackems’ occasionally brittle backline, while Craig Gardner and David Vaughan will contribute drive and energy to the midfield.

Up front, Connor Wickham and Korean Ji-Dong Won promise future rather than immediate impact, so the scoring burden will continue to rest largely on the shoulders of the mercurial Asamoah Gyan.
 
13th - Newcastle United
 
 
To say the transfer strategy which Mike Ashley and co. have pursued this summer is strange is like saying Manchester wasn’t top of Carlos Tevez’s list of potential summer holiday destinations.

Some of the additions boss Alan Pardew has made to his squad look shrewd. Midfielder Yohan Cabaye, signed from French champions Lille, is a full France international and should add a touch of assurance and class to the Toon midfield. Demba Ba impressed last season in a poor West Ham team, and looks to have all the attributes to be a success in the Premier League.

But these new signings, along with wingers Gabriel Obertan and Sylvain Marveaux, have done nothing to persuade the club’s fans that the £35million received for Andy Carroll in January will be reinvested.

Instead, other key players have been discarded. Club captain Kevin Nolan has been allowed to leave for West Ham, Jose Enrique has followed Carroll to Liverpool and Joey Barton has felt exasperated enough by developments at the club to make his feelings known to the world on Twitter.

With the spine of this team having been ripped out and replaced, it’s almost impossible to predict Newcastle’s fate with certainty, but I’m willing to bet there are still quite a few teams worse than them in the top flight.
 
14th - Bolton Wanderers
 
 
Owen Coyle was rightly commended for his achievements with Bolton last season. For a long time his side looked capable of both qualifying for Europe through the Premier League and reaching the FA Cup final, all the while showcasing a style of football which went some way towards rehabilitating the image of the club in the eyes of football purists.

But then it all fell apart. A 5-0 thrashing in the FA Cup semi-final against Stoke had a devastating effect on squad morale, and the Trotters lost each of their last six games to slump to 14th.  The bad news for this campaign is they don’t look capable of improving on that showing this time around.

Coyle has wisely guarded against the possibility of a serious injury of the kind which midfielder Stuart Holden suffered against Manchester United last season with the acquisitions of Nigel Reo-Coker from Aston Villa and Darren Pratley from newly-promoted Swansea, and winger Chris Eagles is an exciting signing from Burnley.

But it’s up front where the problems lie. Top scorer Johan Elmander has departed for Galatasaray, while there will be no repeat of Daniel Sturridge’s sensational loan spell at the end of last season. Coyle is still trying gamely to bolster his attacking options before the end of the month, but if he doesn’t, a lack of goals could seriously inhibit Bolton’s progress.
 
15th - Wolverhampton Wanderers
 
 
Given Mick McCarthy’s men stayed up only by the skin of their teeth on the final day last season, it may appear strange for me to have predicted Wolves to finish as high as 15th this term.

Except, that is, when you consider that Blackburn finished 15th last year and yet were still involved in the relegation scrap until the very last day. I expect this year’s tussle at the bottom to be just as open.

McCarthy has gone for quality rather than quantity in the transfer market this summer. Roger Johnson, who proved himself one of the top flight’s most reliable defenders at Birmingham, has come in and assumed the captain’s armband, while Jamie O’Hara has returned to Molineux on a permanent deal.

But like Bolton, Wolves’ problems lie not with keeping goals out, but with putting them in at the other end. Last season’s top scorer Steven Fletcher notched 10 in the league, but he needs more support from the likes of Doyle, Ebanks-Blake and more attack-minded members of the midfield. If he doesn’t get it, Wolves could be in for another struggle.
 
16th - Blackburn Rovers
 
 
This outrageous and hilarious club advert might have you believe otherwise, but all is certainly not rosy at Ewood Park.

There still appears to be tension left over from the sacking of Sam Allardyce last season and the team’s subsequent flirtation with relegation, and the mood has not been helped by the sale of homegrown gem Phil Jones to Manchester United.

Key defender Christopher Samba has also had his head turned by reported interest from Arsenal, and his departure would be even more devastating to the club’s ambitions.

Despite some big promises from the Rovers’ hierarchy, the highest profile arrivals at Ewood Park so far this summer are striker David Goodwillie from Dundee United and defender Bruno Ribeiro from Vitoria Setubal. Both are unknown quantities in the Premier League, and it is as yet unclear how much they will be able to contribute to a team which presently fails to excite.

Perhaps only Newcastle and QPR are more shambolicly-run than Blackburn in the Premier League, but nevertheless my feeling is they will survive again – just.
 
17th - Norwich City
 
 
This season is the latest chapter of an amazing story for Norwich. Only two years ago the Norfolk-based club were in League One, reeling from a 7-1 opening day demolition at the hands of Colchester City.

Fortunately for Norwich, however, the manager who inflicted that thrashing soon agreed to assume the reins at Carrow Road, and now Paul Lambert has become the first manager to reach the Premier League with back-to-back promotions since Joe Royle with Manchester City a decade ago.

Now both Lambert and his players face their toughest test yet. Norwich have roared into the Premier League with much the same squad which secured them passage out of England’s third tier, and the learning curve at this level will be steep.

But the Canaries’ biggest asset is their manager. Paul Lambert is proving himself to be one of the most promising managerial talents in Britain and, with him at the helm, I can see Norwich’s success story continuing for at least one more year.
 
18th - Swansea City
 
 
There are many reasons to hope Swansea do survive in the Premier League this season.

Those who value the novelty of having a Welsh team in England’s top flight for the first time ever will of course wish them well, while those who heralded Brendan Rodgers’ men the best footballing side in the Championship last year will hope their expansive approach once again pays dividends this time around.

But as romantic the idea is, I just can’t see it happening. Firstly, the loss of several key players is almost certain to have an effect. Darren Pratley, Dorus De Vries and Fabio Borini were all key components of the team whose late charge secured the Premier League dream last year.

Their replacements – Michael Vorm, Danny Graham and Leroy Lita – are not of proven top flight calibre, and the disruption caused by this turnaround in core personnel may mean Swansea’s vaunted passing game is not quite as fluid as it needs to be in order to save them.
 
19th - Wigan Athletic
 
 
That Wigan are entering their seventh consecutive season in the Premier League is in itself an incredible achievement worthy of praise, but it’s hard to see them being granted an eighth.

The Latics have demonstrated tremendous survival skills in numerous relegation battles over the years, but the yearly exodus of key players from the DW Stadium has stretched the squad to breaking point. The departure of Charles N’Zogbia to Aston Villa could be the straw which ends up breaking the camel’s back if the money received from the deal is not reinvested wisely.

Roberto Martinez’s decision to turn down the Aston Villa job this summer speaks well of both him and of the family culture which exists at Wigan, but I fear he may regret it come May.
 
20th - QPR
 
 
QPR’s title triumph in the Championship last season was all the more astonishing for the fact it was achieved against a backdrop of utter turmoil at all levels of the club.

The credit for the triumph must go entirely to Neil Warnock – QPR’s 10th different manager in four seasons – who shook off constant speculation about his own position and the threat of a points deduction for fielding an ineligible player to guide the club back to the top flight for the first time since 1997, and in doing so secure the seventh promotion of his career.

The Rangers board, which consists of F1 giants Flavio Briatore and Bernie Ecclestone and one of the world’s richest men in Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal, has done nothing to either make Warnock feel secure in his role or back him in the transfer market. All of the club’s summer acquisitions have been players passed up by other Premier League clubs and brought to Loftus Road for nominal fees.

As a result, Warnock must do the best he can with a squad of Championship players heavily reliant on the gifted but hugely temperamental Adel Taarabt. While the Moroccan playmaker clearly has talent, there remain serious questions over his attitude and ability to deal with adversity.

If a new culture of stability and investment doesn’t take hold at Loftus Road soon, I fear QPR’s return to the Premier League could be a brief and miserable one.

Friday, 1 July 2011

Copa America 2011 Preview: Players to Watch


The Copa America gets underway this evening, and it promises to be one of the most exciting and least predictable editions of the tournament for many years.

Of course, the bold claim I’ve just made could well be proved spectacularly wrong by a succession of tedious, low-scoring draws and a relatively easy ultimate triumph for one of the ‘big two’, hosts Argentina or defending champions Brazil.

But somehow I don’t think so.

Both of South America’s heavyweights are in varying stages of transition as they build towards the 2014 World Cup, while the likes of Uruguay, Chile and Paraguay have all come on leaps and bounds. The talented but inconsistent Colombia could also cause a shock or two if it takes their fancy.

This depth of quality should make for an exciting tournament, and in this spirit I’ve selected six players from six of the main contending nations who I think are most capable of lighting up the competition. Have a read and let me know your views.
 
Argentina - Lionel Messi
 
 
The most obvious choice on this list. Messi, the best player in the world, is compulsive viewing every time he takes to a football field.

The diminutive playmaker’s phenomenal form over the past three seasons has earned him two consecutive Fifa Ballon d’Or awards and a place in the pantheon of the game’s all-time greats.

The only thing which comes anywhere close to resembling a blott on his magnificent copy-book of achievements is a relative lack of success at international level.

But at just 24, Messi has plenty of time to change that, and a Copa America on home soil could provide the perfect platform for him to finally deliver.
 
Colombia - Radamel Falcao
 
 
Falcao enters this tournament in the form of his life.

In the last two seasons the striker has netted an astonishing 75 times in 83 appearances for Porto, winning five trophies in two seasons with the Portuguese giants.

Falcao’s record at international level is somewhat less impressive, with a return of just seven goals from 28 games, but this is largely down to the failure of a succession of national team coaches to find a system which gets the best out of him.

Heavily linked with a move to join former boss Andre Villas-Boas at Chelsea this summer, it also remains to be seen whether all the speculation over his future will adversely affect the 25-year-old’s performances on the pitch.

Nevertheless, if he gets a chance in the box, expect him to take it.
 
Brazil - Neymar
 
 
There is almost nothing to say about Neymar which hasn’t already been said. Hands down the hottest young prospect in world football, the 19-year-old attacker is already being coveted by the likes of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Chelsea and Manchester City.

What’s more, the Santos youngster’s talent fully justifies the level of hype which surrounds him. Neymar helped drive his team to victory this season in the South American Champions League, the Copa Libertadores, even scoring in the second leg of the final against Penarol.

He has also established himself as a key component of the exciting young Brazil side which Mano Menezes hopes to battle-harden with Copa America and Olympic experience in time for the 2014 World Cup, impressing European football fans with a match-winning display in a friendly victory over Scotland back in March.

There are still huge question marks over the cocky young man’s ego and temperament, but nothing a series of world-class performances over the next month won’t answer.

Whatever happens, you won’t be able to take your eyes off him.
 
Paraguay - Lucas Barrios
 
 
Barrios built on an impressive showing at last summer’s World Cup in South Africa by firing Borussia Dortmund to their first league title since 2002 last season, and will be hoping to round off a fantastic campaign by at least helping Paraguay to the latter stages of the Copa.

The naturalised Argentine is a scoring machine, averaging over a goal a game at club level. His penalty area instincts do not seem to have dimmed on the international stage either, with five goals a handsome return from his first 12 appearances.

With his pace, skill and clever movement in the final third, Barrios is capable of troubling any defence in the tournament. Let’s hope he does.
 
Chile - Alexis Sanchez
 
 
Another name on the lips of Europe’s best and richest, Sanchez last season made the transition from exciting but unrefined youngster to top talent with world-class potential.

The 22-year-old contributed 12 goals from midfield to help Udinese finish 4th in Serie A and qualify for the Champions League for only the second time in their history.

Whether drifting inside from the right flank or starting in the free role behind the striker, Sanchez’s pace, skill and clinical finishing are dazzling, and clever movement between the opposition’s defensive lines often enables him to receive the ball in space in the final third.

Sanchez has all the ability to light up this year’s Copa. Only time will tell whether the protracted nature of his summer move to Barcelona will affect his focus, but both Chile fans and neutrals will be hoping it doesn’t.
 
Uruguay - Edinson Cavani
 
 
Cavani was an absolute revelation last season, netting an incredible 26 times in Serie A to fire Napoli into the Champions League for the first time since the tournament itself was called the European Cup and a certain Diego Maradona was plying his trade at the San Paolo.

Big, strong and lethal anywhere in sight of goal, ‘El Matador’ showed signs of his class at last summer’s World Cup in South Africa, although it was his strike partners who garnered most of the headlines – Forlan for his talismanic performances, and Suarez for that handball.

But now, having blossomed into one of the most feared frontmen in European football, Cavani is ready to take centre stage in this Uruguay team. And with Forlan providing the ammunition from deep and Suarez a willing runner, he’s likely to get plenty of service.

Sunday, 26 June 2011

‘Special’ won’t cut it for Villas-Boas at Chelsea

New Blues boss must outdo achievements of former mentor Mourinho and win Champions League to be a success at Stamford Bridge

Chelsea's appointment of 33-year-old former scout Andre Villas-Boas has surprised many
 
For someone who claims to be trying to avoid comparisons to Jose Mourinho, Andre Villas Boas has gone a funny way about it.

One of the Special One’s most trusted assistants over the course of eight years spent at Porto, Chelsea, and then Inter Milan, Villas-Boas ultimately decided to leave his mentor’s side and carve out his own legacy in management.

Yet after an impressively overachieving but brief stint at unfashionable Academica, where did this single-minded and ambitious young coach choose to go to make his mark? Porto, a club still struggling to emerge from the shadow cast by Mourinho’s monumental domestic and European achievements there six years earlier.

Still, make his mark Villas-Boas certainly did. Under the 33-year-old’s astute guidance, Porto won four of the five tournaments they entered, romping to victory in the league by 21 points without losing a single match as well as triumphing in the Portuguese Cup and Europa League.

Along the way, Portugal’s latest coaching whizz-kid broke many of Mourinho’s old records and established himself as a top managerial prospect in his own right. The footballing world was at his feet, with Inter Milan and Chelsea both weighing up the possibility of a summer move to procure his services.

Neither option would have done much to discourage the perception of the 33-year-old as ‘the Special One: Mark II’. 
 
But Villas-Boas is a smart man as well as a talented young coach. While he may continually stress the differences between him and his former boss in press conferences, he has recognised that comparisons with arguably the greatest coach of the past decade could only boost his career prospects, and has used this image to his advantage.

Reportedly the Italian giants were unwilling to stump up the outrageous sum of £13.3million required to release Villas-Boas from his contract, leaving Chelsea the only viable suitor. But even had it been a straight choice between the two, it is likely the Porto boss would have favoured a move to west London anyway.

Why? Partly because the Premier League currently has the edge on Serie A in terms of quality of competition and prestige. Partly also because Villas-Boas underwent much of his coaching development in the UK, first on Uefa coaching courses and then in the corridors of Cobham.

But mainly because although either option would have placed the burden of expectation on Villas-Boas to match Mourinho at the scene of one of the most spectacularly successful chapters in the Special One’s illustrious career, only Chelsea could offer the opportunity for the student to surpass the master.

For despite delivering a trophy haul unprecedented in the club’s history, Mourinho left Chelsea in 2007 feeling relatively unfulfilled by his own impossibly high standards.

The Champions League was the only major trophy to elude Mourinho at Stamford Bridge

Sure, he had ended the Blues’ 50-year wait for a league title and then repeated the trick a year later, but he had not – as he had done at Porto and would go on to do at Inter – brought the Champions League trophy back to Stamford Bridge.

The notable absence of the greatest prize in club football from Chelsea’s modern success story is still referred to with a degree of regret and frustration by Mourinho to this day, just as it is still the source of the unrelenting obsession which drives Roman Abramovich’s astoundingly lavish spending.

For Villas-Boas then, the Champions League represents the greatest opportunity of emerging from the shadow of his former boss. It also happens to be his only chance of long-term survival.

Carlo Ancelotti’s swift demise barely twelve months after he had led the club to its first ever Double illustrates that domestic dominance is now expected rather than cherished at Stamford Bridge. A league title can buy a Chelsea coach another season, at best, but only European glory can make him a permanent fixture.

Just matching Mourinho’s achievements, then, will not be enough.

Abramovich may be addicted to the thrill which success in football brings, but Premier League and FA Cup triumphs no longer provide a sufficient high. Villas-Boas will have to deliver him the ultimate prize, or recent history suggests he will become just the latest in an illustrious list of managerial casualties.
 
The 33-year-old’s task will only be made harder by the fact he inherits a considerably weaker squad to the one Mourinho assumed control of in 2004. 
 
The spine of that title-winning team remains the same in name only, lacking both in youthful hunger and vigour. There is also a distinct absence of cover in many areas – the result of an apparent cost cutting drive last summer, later rendered futile by January’s £75million spending spree.

As well as refreshing the first team ranks, Villas-Boas would also do well to rein in the player power at Stamford Bridge. The likes of John Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba have grown in influence as well as experience over the past few years, and the sway which Chelsea’s captain appears to have with Abramovich is a particular cause for concern.
 
The close relationship between Terry & Abramovich would worry any incoming Chelsea coach
 
But for all the potential pitfalls inherent within it, this is not an impossible job. It is merely a very difficult one. Moreover, it is one for which, despite his relative lack of experience, Villas-Boas may be uniquely well-equipped to flourish in.

Of each of the six previous managers Chelsea have hired and/or fired since 2004, Mourinho lasted the longest in the job – a relative lifetime of three years. 
 
Villas-Boas witnessed first-hand how the Special One managed to maintain a working dialogue with his impulsive and ruthless chairman for all this time, and he was also present as the relationship gradually broke down. This means he is arguably better placed than anyone not only to replicate Mourinho’s successes in this regard, but also to learn from his former boss’s misjudgments.

The other great advantage Villas-Boas has is an established rapport with the Chelsea players, many of whom benefited from the exhaustive scouting reports he diligently compiled during Mourinho’s reign and still retain a genuine respect for him as a result. 
 
Of course, it still remains for the 33-year-old to ensure this relationship now assumes a player-manager dynamic, but the emphatic nature of his success at Porto suggests this won’t be a problem.

It is clearly a massive risk for Villas-Boas to plunge himself into football's ‘lion’s den’ with only 18 months’ worth of managerial experience to his name, but equally massive are the potential rewards. 
 
He has the opportunity to finally emerge from the sizable shadow of Mourinho by completing his former mentor’s ‘unfinished business’ in the Champions League and begin writing his own history in the process.

One thing is clear, however: Anything less than making Chelsea ‘kings of Europe’ will be regarded as a failure, because being ‘Special’ just doesn’t cut it at Stamford Bridge anymore.

Tuesday, 14 June 2011

Is the 'English premium' worth paying?

Big money moves for Henderson and Jones have reignited the 'English premium' debate

After a quiet start, the Premier League summer transfer window has suddenly exploded into life, with Liverpool swooping for Sunderland midfield starlet Jordan Henderson and Manchester United splashing out on Blackburn Rovers defensive wonderkid Phil Jones.

The deals, which could both rise to £20million depending on the youngsters’ eventual level of achievement, signify the ongoing commitment of both clubs towards securing the best young English talent regardless of the cost,  following on from the signings of Chris Smalling and Andy Carroll earlier in the season.

This shared commitment is undoubtedly admirable, but is it wise? After all, the two Premier League giants have now committed to shelling out a combined estimate of £82million on four players who boast just three England caps between them.

It goes without saying that the figures quoted in connection with the names above are, by any normal market standards, ridiculous. They are inflated, disproportionate to the players’ current abilities and unduly distorted by the tantalizing possibility of what they may go on to become.

They are, in short, examples of what’s become known in domestic football circles in recent times as the ‘English premium’ – the somewhat bizarre and often spectacular phenomenon which dictates that top young English footballers command much higher fees on the transfer market than foreign talent of equivalent, or sometimes even superior, skill and experience.

Sounds strange? That’s because it is. But it’s also true.

Jordan Henderson, a promising but relatively unproven young midfielder, has cost Liverpool an initial fee of £16million – the same price that Tottenham Hotspur paid to bring Luka Modric, at the time rated as one of the most gifted young playmakers in Europe, to White Hart Lane three years ago.

Phil Jones has already cost Manchester United more than double what Nemanja Vidic did in 2006, although admittedly the Serbian was an absolute snip at £7million.

And at £35million, Liverpool have paid around £10million more for a 21-year-old Andy Carroll than they did for a 23-year-old Fernando Torres – a player who, even then, boasted a far more extensive and impressive resume – back in 2007.

"Andy who?!? How much?!?"

Of course, player acquisition in football has never been, and never will be, an exact science. 

But even if we assume the likes of Modric, Vidic and Torres were unusually good value for money, the fact remains that, purely in terms of initial transfer outlay, a policy of pursuing foreign talent appears to represent both a far smaller risk of failure and far greater chance of reward.

So why do top Premier League clubs still consider the ‘English premium’ to be worth paying?

There are several reasons, the first of which constitutes the stick which is repeatedly used to beat football in this country. It is this: young English players with elite potential are a rare commodity.

Moreover, when you subtract the likes of John Terry, Jack Wilshere, Paul Scholes and Steven Gerrard, who were fortunate to come through the youth ranks already at one of the Premier League giants, the number of feasible and worthwhile young English transfer targets shrinks even further.

All this means when an English ‘wonderkid’ surfaces at a middling top flight club, the Premier League giants are more inclined to consider an inflated transfer fee a risk worth taking.

Wayne Rooney has amply repaid the £30m Manchester United paid for him in 2004

Manchester United raised a few eyebrows when they made 18-year-old Wayne Rooney the most expensive teenager in football history by paying Everton up to £30million for him in 2004, but they gambled they were signing the best English talent of his generation. So it has proved.

Theo Walcott, who cost Arsenal £9million to prise from Southampton at just 16, has not proved such an emphatic success, but time remains on the side of him and his club.

That’s all very well, you might say, but one question inevitably now comes to mind: Why are English clubs so bothered about signing young English players in particular?

The cynic might argue it’s because of the Uefa Home-Grown Rules implemented at the start of this season by the Premier League, which require at least eight members of each club’s squad to have been trained for at least three years below the age of 21 in the English or Welsh professional system.

However, while this may factor in the thinking of Premier League clubs now, the ‘English premium’ has been around considerably longer than any home-grown restrictions.

Ultimately, the main reason why top Premier League clubs are consistently willing to pay marquee prices for top young English players is because they consider them a more fundamentally worthwhile investment than their foreign counterparts. 

And when you look at the evidence they can summon to back up their case, it becomes hard to argue.

This may seem counter-intuitive given the England national team’s dismal record at major international tournaments over the past decade, but whether youth team products or big money arrivals, the country’s finest footballers have been hugely successful assets for their clubs.

John Terry, Frank Lampard, Ashley Cole, Rio Ferdinand and Wayne Rooney have all been integral as Manchester United and Chelsea have shared the last seven Premier League titles between them, while Steven Gerrard and Jamie Carragher both played key roles in Liverpool’s sensational Champions League triumph in Istanbul in 2005.

Steven Gerrard inspired Liverpool to an astonishing comeback in 2005

The best young English footballers invariably mature not just to make up the numbers at top Premier League clubs, but to help form the spine of successful teams.

Their native knowledge of the English footballing culture and style of the Premier League, combined with their superb ability, means they can provide the sort of leadership which, even in the most illustrious of dressing rooms, may otherwise have been lacking.

Another reason why the Liverpools and Manchester Uniteds of this world consider the ‘English premium’ to be worth paying is the greater longevity of service top English players tend to provide.

There are many disadvantages to the Premier League being the all-consuming monster that it is, but one of the biggest plus points of having such a strong domestic club game is that, with the odd exception (I’m looking at you, Mr Beckham), English youngsters tend to grow up wanting to play for Liverpool, Arsenal or Manchester United, rather than Real Madrid, Barcelona or AC Milan.

What’s more, having this added familiarity with the environment they are in means top English players are far less likely to become unsettled and want to leave for non-footballing reasons. Even domestic transfers of high-profile English players between the country’s top clubs have been extremely rare in the Premier League era.

When top young English players sign for Liverpool and Manchester United and succeed, they invariably stay. This inevitably has a massive bearing on the sort of prices the clubs are willing to pay for them in the first place.

Kenny Dalglish will have far fewer objections to spending over £50million on Andy Carroll and Jordan Henderson knowing that the fee is being paid with a view to the pair seeing out their careers at Anfield, rather than spending a couple of seasons on Merseyside before wanting a new challenge. The same applies to Sir Alex Ferguson and Phil Jones.

That said, there is no denying the risk inherent in paying the ‘English premium’.

Having committed a huge amount of money towards the procurement of some of the country’s finest young talents, both Manchester United and Liverpool can now ill afford to fail to bring the best out of them.

But it is equally clear that United and Liverpool have made their investments with their eyes wide open.

They will have thoroughly run the rule over their new arrivals many times over the past year or so, analyzing all their strengths and weaknesses before agreeing to a deal. They will be as confident as can be of producing the next generation of English superstars.

Paying the ‘English premium’ will never be a safe bet. But one thing is for certain: If you win, the rewards are enormous.

2010/11 Season Review Part 2: European Team of the Season

And so, ladies and gentlemen, we’ve come to the end of another season, and it was a decidedly mixed bag.

In England, we we lured into predicting the tightest Premier League race in years only for the rest of the pack to limply fade away and leave Manchester United to amble over the line to a record 19th title.

Spain lived up to its billing as the most glamorous two-team league on the planet, Italy was competitive but short on elite quality teams, while Germany and France both yielded surprise champions.

And in the Champions League final, Barcelona left almost everyone except Sir Alex Ferguson feeling all warm and fuzzy inside with a virtuoso display that surely confirms the Catalans’ place among the all-time great club sides.

With all this in mind, I’ve compiled my team of the season. I’ve elected to play 4-3-3 because, as you all surely have heard, it’s like, so in right now.

In the first XI I’ve chosen who I think have been the best players in each position over the last year, and on the bench I’ve tried also to be representative of the players who shone outside England and Spain, and who invariably spurred their teams on to great things.

WARNING: Neither PFA Player of the Year Gareth Bale or FWA Player of the Year Scott Parker have made it into my squad – Bale because he only dazzled intermittently in an injury-disrupted season, and Parker because I feel that, with all due respect, being the best player in the worst team in the Premier League doesn’t actually count for all that much.

Have a read and let me know your views.

Goalkeeper - Edwin Van Der Sar, Manchester United


It is easy to forget that before Van Der Sar signed for United in the summer of 2005, Sir Alex Ferguson’s ill-fated search for a worthy successor to great Dane Peter Schmeichel between the Old Trafford sticks had become a source of comedy for rival fans.

The Dutchman has more than put paid to that though, oozing calm and consistency for the last five years and providing a reliable platform for Ferguson’s latest era of success at United. Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic have looked so imperious as a defensive pairing not least because of the confidence they share in the man behind them.

Van Der Sar’s place in my team is not assured by the fact he is retiring this summer, but simply as a result of him being the best keeper in the world this season (Champions League final blip aside). Mr De Gea, you have some big shoes to fill.

Right-back - Dani Alves, Barcelona


I don’t think there can be any arguments with this one. The decline of Maicon at Inter has given Alves the opportunity to assume the mantle of best right-back on the planet, and it is one he has grasped with both hands.

Rarely has a full-back carried such tactical influence on any team, let alone one of the greatest club sides in history, but Alves is undoubtedly crucial to the way Barcelona play.

A supreme athlete, his ability to ally potent attacking threat – he has 15 (yes, 15) assists in La Liga this season - with defensive awareness provides the Catalans with much needed width going forward without exposing themselves too much at the back. A worthy edition to any side.

Centre-back - Nemanja Vidic, Manchester United
 

Comfortably the best centre-half in the country this season and, as his inclusion here categorically proves (ahem), one of the two best in the world. The big Serb has symbolised everything which has marked United out as deserving Premier League champions through his confidence and unerring determination.

With regular partner Rio Ferdinand suffering from persistent injury problems, Vidic has regularly held makeshift defences together and occasionally stopped his team conceding through what seems nothing more than sheer force of will.

Despite Barcelona tearing him a new one in the Champions League final, there are still few people other than Vidic who you would stake your life on making a goal-saving block or tackle, and he brings much needed grit to this flamboyant team. The defensive lynchpin and natural captain of this mythical team.

Centre-back - Gerard Pique, Barcelona


A tall, elegant, ball playing centre-back, Pique would complement Vidic in this team in much the same way as Ferdinand does at United.

But make no mistake, the young Spaniard can also mix it in physical terms against the very best, as his astonishingly dominating display in the Champions League final proved.

Like Vidic, Pique earned his place in this team by holding his defence together for long periods in the absence of an illustrious partner, and at only 24, he can remain one of the best in the world for many years to come. 

And he’s doing it all with the added distraction of dating Shakira…

Left-back - Marcelo, Real Madrid

 
Marcelo just edges out Patrice Evra for my left back berth on the strength of what has comfortably been the best season of the young Brazilian’s career to date.

Long renowned for his exceptional attacking gifts, Marcelo had been regarded as something of a defensive liability by a succession of Real Madrid managers until Jose Mourinho arrived at the Bernebeu.

But the Special One appears to have corrected this issue, and now his young charge balances responsibilities on the left flank at both ends of the pitch almost as well as fellow Brazilian Dani Alves on the right.

Defensive Midfielder - Sergio Busquets, Barcelona

 
The biggest complement you can pay to Sergio Busquets is that Barcelona have not missed Yaya Toure since the big Ivorian moved to Manchester City last summer.

In fact, the Catalans’ midfield is actually stronger, with increased La Masia connections facilitating their suffocating possession football, and Busquets’ defensive talents improving the team’s ability to win the ball back deep in the opposition’s half.

His play-acting frustrates and even disgusts at times, but his quality and place in this team cannot be denied.

Midfielder - Xavi Hernandez, Barcelona

 
No justification needed here. Xavi is the greatest midfield playmaker of his generation and one of the best of all time.

His passing is metronomic in its accuracy, his technique flawless, his awareness almost supernatural. Xavi not only sees gaps in opposing defences before they appear, he then has the poise and ability to find them, time and again.

He is also the man for the big occasion, having now dictated two Champions League finals and last summer’s World Cup showpiece against Holland in South Africa. Simply a joy to watch whenever he takes to the field.

Midfielder - Andres Iniesta, Barcelona

 
There's a reason they're the best team in the world, you know. Completing my midfield triumvirate is the third member of what will surely go down as one of the best footballing units in history.

Iniesta possesses vision if not quite on a par with Xavi, then at least in the same league, and combines this with the dynamism and skill to get into attacking positions and contribute goals for his team.

The 27-year-old earns his place in the team on his own merits, but the fact remains that when Xavi and Iniesta play together, their almost telepathic understanding allows them both to reach new plains of greatness.

Right-winger - Mesut Ozil, Real Madrid


Ozil won his big move to Real after a series of star-making performances for Germany at the World Cup last summer, but the odd question still remained about his ability to produce his best in the pressure cooker environment of the Bernebeu.

The young playmaker could not have answered those questions more emphatically. Not only has he matched the heights of South Africa this season, he has improved and matured into a consistently world class performer.

Ozil has created a chance on average every 22 minutes this season – the best ratio of anyone in the top five European leagues. It’s no wonder, then, that former World Player of the Year Kaka has been relegated to the role of understudy to the German.

Centre-forward - Lionel Messi, Barcelona

 
Who else? Messi has once again confirmed his status as the greatest player of his generation with the best season of his career to date.

53 goals and 23 assists yielded La Liga and Champions League winners’ medals, and the little Argentine capped it all with a masterful performance at Wembley.

The Messi has achieved all he has achieved is exceptional. That he is still only 23 is, frankly, frightening. No ultimate team would be complete without him.

Left-winger - Cristiano Ronaldo, Real Madrid

 
His trophy haul might not have been as impressive as Messi’s this season, but Ronaldo appears to have been inspired by the astonishing feats of his rival to reach new levels of greatness.

The Portuguese superstar broke the all-time scoring record in La Liga, recording 40 goals over the course of the campaign, and matched Messi’s total of 53 in all competitions. 

Those who accuse Ronaldo of being more individualistic than the Barcelona man might also be interested to know he has 15 assists in all competitions this term, the third highest in the team.

He may not be the best in the world, but he’s certainly done enough to ensure he’s still in the debate.

Manager - Pep Guardiola, Barcelona

 
As great as this Barcelona team is, it does not, as some like to believe, manage itself. 

Pep Guardiola has been just as integral to the club's phenomenal success over the past three seasons as the players he trains, and an astonishing haul of ten trophies from a possible 13 in that time reflects just as much upon him as it does his team.

For all he has achieved in his time in Catalonia, this season's triumphs may be his greatest yet. Managing a small (albeit exceptional) squad, the 40-year-old had to deal with the lengthy absences of  key players Eric Abidal and captain Carles Puyol. 

He also had to negotiate an unprecedented period of four intense El Clasicos in less than a month which defined the Catalans' season, and tested their young coach's resolve as well as his talent.

Guardiola has hinted he may take a break from football when he finally leaves the Nou Camp. After this season, you'd have to say he's earned one.

Substitutes

Edinson Cavani, Napoli – his 26 goals fired Napoli to an unexpected title push and eventual Champions League place.

Jack Wilshere, Arsenal – went from prodigious youngster to key man for both club and country in the space of a season. A superstar in the making.

Manuel Neuer, Schalke – brilliant all season for Schalke and produced arguably the outstanding goalkeeping performance of the season in his side’s Champions League semi-final first leg against Manchester United.

Thiago Silva, AC Milan – Marshalled an aging Milan defence to 20 clean sheets on their way to a first Serie A title since 2004, as well as establishing himself as first choice for Brazil.

Eden Hazard, Lille – provided the skill and class which enabled his club to win its first top flight French title in 57 years as part of an historic league and cup double. Is all but assured of a move to a top club this summer.

Nuri Sahin, Borussia Dortmund – While boy wonder Mario Gotze attracted the headlines, it was Sahin who linked defence and attack for the surprise Bundesliga champions with his excellent vision and awareness. Deserves his move to Real Madrid.

Antonio Di Natale, Udinese – the very reason why Edinson Cavani’s phenomenal season still wasn’t enough to win the Serie A golden boot. Still outstanding at 33, Di Natale’s experience and quality was integral to an Udinese side which secured Champions League qualification for only the second time in the club’s history.

Sunday, 29 May 2011

Brilliant Barcelona join football's pantheon


It was the final we all wanted: the champions of Europe's two strongest leagues meeting at one of football's most spectacular venues to determine the cream of the continent.

We were assured of a contest for the ages. Manchester United vowed they had learned from humiliation in Rome two years ago, while Barcelona insisted that victory in 2009 had not showcased the peak of their powers.

The level of quality on show, coupled with the presence of dominating, attacking football as a core principle within the proud traditions of both clubs would guarantee, we thought, a competitive match on the biggest stage of them all. 

But, alas, it was not to be.

What transpired instead resembled something more like a sporting apotheosis, as through the devastating beauty of their play Pep Guardiola's exceptional side transcended the boundaries of mere excellence and staked an irrefutable claim for the current Barcelona vintage to be considered among the pantheon of the game's all time greats.

Moreover, the reality that such an outcome was not due to the faults of their opposition only amplifies the Catalans' achievement. For make no mistake, United tried their best to meet them on equal terms. 

The likes of Park, Giggs, Valencia and Hernandez, so influential in wrapping up the Premier League title, were again trusted to deliver on the big occasion, and immediately set about preventing the Spanish giants from getting into their mesmerising rhythm with typical zeal and endeavour.

For the first ten minutes, the ploy worked, and United were even able to pin their opponents back as they cautiously looked for a way to test Victor Valdes. But as soon as Barcelona began to warm to the task at hand, the gulf in class became evident.

The lethal quintet of Messi, Villa, Pedro, Iniesta and Dani Alves eagerly swarmed all over the scrambling United backline with Xavi, imperious as ever, conducting proceedings from deep. 

Sir Alex Ferguson's side looked in trouble long before the midfield maestro found Pedro with a sublimely-timed flick of his right boot and the young winger outwitted the despairing duo of Vidic and Van Der Sar with a clinical near post finish.

This United side have been accused on many occasions this season of compensating for a lack of fantasy with an abundance of resilience, but in their response to going behind both qualities were present in spades. 

Wayne Rooney's forceful but controlled finish following a rapid-fire exchange of passes with first Michael Carrick and then Ryan Giggs contained within it a level of craft which would not look out of place on the hallowed fields surrounding La Masia. 

At such a moment, the red half of Manchester may have allowed itself to believe once again that the force of destiny was with them. At the very least, their team had done more than in Rome in 2009: they had asked a question of Barcelona.

The Catalan response was emphatic. Rooney's strike proved nothing more than a spectacular anomaly in an otherwise uninterrupted pattern of suffocating Barcelona pressure, and it did not take long for the irrepressible genius of Lionel Messi, the world's best player, to finally make its mark on English soil.


As the beleaguered trio of Park, Carrick and Giggs found itself completely in the thrall of Barcelona's midfield passing carousel, Messi found himself 25 yards from goal with the United defence at his mercy.

The diminutive Argentine took his chance brilliantly, curling a venomous low short with minimal backlift around the prone Nemanja Vidic and towards goal. Van Der Sar was still diving when the ball hit the net.

It is a measure of the formidable winning mentality fostered so expertly by Ferguson that United's natural instinct was to attempt to pour forward in search of another equaliser, but Barca were by now in no mood to allow their opponents such an opportunity.

Instead the Catalans attacked with even greater vigour, appearently seized by the desire to make the scoreline reflect their utter dominance. They quickly got their wish, David Villa brilliantly curling the ball into the top corner to put the result beyond doubt.

Although they were not overawed as in 2009, United were no less overwhelmed by Barcelona, and the Spaniards third goal did what few, if any, have ever succeeded in doing to a team of men from Old Trafford: it broke their resolve.

In the last twenty minutes, Pep Guardiola's side dimmed their attacking ambitions but still held the Premier League champions at arms length with ease, defending, as they do so well, with the ball.

As the final whistle blew at Wembley to rubber-stamp Barcelona's fourth European Cup triumph at the place where it all started for them in 1992, many of those who witnessed the match were left wondering if they had ever seen a more dominant performance in the final of the continent's premier club competition.

The response, almost unanimously, will have been no, and in the answering of this question alone the greatness of this Barcelona team becomes clear. But for any who remain unconvinced, there is further evidence to back up the case.

In the last three seasons, Pep Guardiola's side have won 10 of the 13 tournaments they have entered. This astonishing trophy haul includes three consecutive La Liga titles, two Champions Leagues and a World Club Championship. It is their results as much as the beauty of their methods which makes this exceptional group worthy of a place among the greatest club sides in history.

But perhaps the ultimate proof of the greatness of this Barcelona side can be found in the way other top teams approach the task of facing them.

Pep Guardiola's side alter their methods for no one, whereas even illustrious opponents such as Manchester United and Real Madrid are forced to focus their efforts on stifling the Catalans, accepting that any attempt to impose themselves will result in disaster.

And more often than not, as this season has proved, they still lose. There is no other side in recent memory - possibly ever - which has provoked such fear, and so justifiably, in its rivals.

When Barcelona demolished Real Madrid 5-0 in the Clasico last November, I claimed that Pep Guardiola's side were knocking on the door of history. On Saturday at Wembley, they crossed the threshold.